Bull trap in the making?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by lloyd111, Mar 22, 2007.

  1. Probably because a lot of people have the same concerns I have regarding the Asian markets. The issue is the recent overbuying of asian stocks, especially the SSEC and that fact that the US indexes are now following the Aisan indexes. If the chinese markets undergo another panick the US markets will get slammed regardless of the fundementals here. Recent articles have shown that lots of young uninformed investors are jumping in the the markets in China which bears a resemblence to the amatuers that rushed in 1999-2000.
    #41     Mar 23, 2007
  2. duard


    N225 Nikkei 225 17,517.03 11:48PM ET Up 97.83 (0.56%)
    #42     Mar 23, 2007
  3. I think the Asian market was slow tonight in anticipation of the Existing Home Sales report due out tomorrow.

    Mar 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Feb - Briefing Forecast expects 6.30M Market expects 6.30M Prior 6.46M

    With supposed no big problem in subprime and housing I find it amusing that the pundits will be exstatic if they have a lower number than the prior month.Markets will explode upwards lol,what a joke!

    I can hear the talking heads now....market rallying today as the existing home sales report matched the street expectations as existing home sales only declined by 16/100ths of a point.

    I guess anything can be wrapped and sold to the lemmings.

    #43     Mar 23, 2007
  4. heh.. I should have just held and all would have been good. Just got a bit antsy and sold off too soon

    #44     Mar 23, 2007
  5. hels02


    My guess is that tomorrow will close a bit down. We still need to digest the gains and people are always slow to come back and trust again after just taking their money and running away as fast as they could (for a loss).

    We're either going to churn out the weak hands with little dips like today's for a week before the next leg up, or we'll have a big day tomorrow and a much bigger 2-3 down days next week. I think the former. Will see.

    I frankly don't think the case for recession is all that good, at least not yet. Maybe in a month or 2, but not yet.
    #45     Mar 23, 2007
  6. hels02


    You just nailed the biggest problem in the market. How do you know when you held too long and how do you know when its not long enough BEFORE the fact?

    If the charts tell all, then why aren't all chartists rich? At even 10% a month, that's more than money doubling every year... why are they still charting?

    Fundamentalists cannot always be right... there's ALWAYS a time lag before real company news and when media will let you know about it, usually days and weeks where those in the know got to profit.

    SEC aside, if you work at a company and you hear that X company submitted a buyout offer for your company, you're not going to call your mom, your brothers and sisters, uncles and cousins, friends and neighbors and tell them to BUY NOW?

    Of course you will. Times that by 95% of the employees in the company who know too. The stock is going to move. Even if there is NO broker leaks, what's the SEC going to do about the usual dozens to hundreds of company employees who hear first?

    So do fundamentalists get this info? Course not.

    So who knows? The people who work there and the rest of us gamble.

    So how do you KNOW? You develop a sense for it and you get lucky. But no one is 100% lucky. If you're better than 50% lucky, you're doing better than that % of the other traders.
    #46     Mar 23, 2007
  7. Look like no one is paying attention to the Iran hostage situation.
    #47     Mar 23, 2007
  8. doublea


    Went long QID at close. Stop will be close above 1441.
    #48     Mar 23, 2007
  9. screw this whacked out market -- the trend is your friend.
    I'm going long.. with a very tight stop loss.

    Let the games begin and see how much deeper I'll be in the house of pain.
    #49     Mar 24, 2007
  10. Maybe some of you expert tech anal can explain GROW. The day before the pop it traded at a range of 37 to 38 with a total volume of 80k. The next day it trended up slowly and after lunch time that bitch popped like crazy and off it goes.

    #50     Mar 24, 2007