Bull trap in the making?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by lloyd111, Mar 22, 2007.

  1. S2007, Annunaki

    I am in your camp however thin it may be lol.
    My one concern is the SPX when it came to the fib retracement it blew through the 61 with ease but a look at the chart shows an a or b possibility maybe add the c in there too. A) It goes no further on a weak right shoulder selloff begins. B) Reaches the previous high at 1461 or close there by completing a full to near full 100 point fib retracement as well as the right shoulder equalling the left at which point it sells down. C) The SPX goes to the moon Alice! To the moon! 1500 without a gasp for air!!! Oh and never ever sells off

    I lean more to the B scenario but being a bear in these times am set up for a decline so would like to see A as the result of this bounce off the recent low.

    Plenty of potential triggers out there to send the bull running for cover so just a matter of playing what the market offers but imho have a short play in to catch the wave...gold works. silver too! no expiry on those shorts lol.

    Just a note to the board.

    I speak only my opinion,and my charting expertise is quite limited as learning is a process and I only just started the learning process. Interesting stuff I must admit.

    Thx for the replies.

    #11     Mar 22, 2007
  2. Welcome aboard lloyd..we need the support !

    FYI .. dont overlook the 78.6% fib on the spx. We are just under it.

    61.8% fib stopped the dow and Nas

    its funny how the fundies will laugh at T/A but you see rallies and drops stopping at these points all the time.
    #12     Mar 22, 2007
  3. piezoe


    "Hi all,hey what ever happened to the Fed induced rally this morning?

    Absolutely no follow through!"

    Consolidation! But interestingly, with absence of buying (covering) on volume at the close. Surely not all the shorts were were squeezed out on Wednesday.

    Cheers, and happy trading.
    #13     Mar 22, 2007
  4. hels02


    Actually... what works, but NOT during a protracted bear market, is when the market CRASHES, sell all your poop that doesn't move, and immediately buy the stocks that have dumped, but were super hot.

    No matter what, you will have a bounce a day or 2 out if things don't look so great, and you can sell it and be more ahead than you would have been hanging on to the dogs you sold. This is the point that most writers tell you to BUY. Right, so THEY can dump their mistakes on YOU. DON"T buy the day or 2 after a crash.

    Ie., next dump, THAT's when you sell your nonmovers and buy GOOG, AAPL, GROW, BIG the things you wish you bought as they took off. For me, that list was GROW, BIG, TIE, QQQQ, PBW, CX, EBAY (little late on these 2, but still caught $.50 and $1 each).

    I intend to sell all these back out in a few days or weeks, depending on what happens.

    In a bear market, tactics change.
    #14     Mar 22, 2007
  5. Anunakki

    Thankyou very much for the nice welcome and the new to me Fib number. Not kidding ,pretty new to the charts. Fundamentally speaking,I can hold my own pretty well.

    Best to you.

    #15     Mar 22, 2007
  6. Understanding FED moves as I have traded many moves including the "Surprise rate Cut" back in the last Bear market.

    The fed move the day of the "decision" is usally noise. Regardless if its up 100 or down 100. The next few days are chop and very little follow through. A lot of "Fed" digestion is going on. The move IMHO will come next week.

    The feds were very clear. It's the Economy stupid. They are watching inflation as well. Sub-prime implossion is of no real intrest to the acting fed. For many reasons.

    However, watch the VIX. Because the Economic numbers are going to be watched closly, we could get some volitility soon.

    IMHO im bearish. However, going long in short term moves is also a play that I will take.

    #16     Mar 22, 2007
  7. As Mr Burns would say

    I like the cut of your jib !

    #17     Mar 22, 2007
  8. today was a win for the bulls. almost no pullback after a huge rally.
    #18     Mar 22, 2007
  9. SOB.. I bought PUTS on WYNN yesterday - losing my ass off. I'm always on the wrong side - I had calls on WYNN and sold it for a loss last week - if I had held the calls it would have been worth 10K.

    Damn, I need to get out and stop playing - need to start studying again. I am such a freaking noob.
    #19     Mar 22, 2007
  10. Thats an incorrect statement. It was a win for the bears..they stopped that bull dead in its tracks.

    There were dojis everywhere today. Thats not a victory for the bulls..a victory would have been a continued rally.

    Instead what we got was a one day emotional rally on the fed news that died out after a couple hours. Big gain it was, but its very rare for a rally that has legs to not continue into the next day.

    A series of dojis means that people are uncomfortable with the current price level.

    We will probably see a few more dojis before heading down .

    Now Im not saying we're breaking the lows of the past few weeks..but we are almost certain to head back down at least one more time even IF the bull rally continues.
    #20     Mar 22, 2007