Hi all,hey what ever happened to the Fed induced rally this morning? Absolutely no follow through! And top it all off with a flat to sideways trading day with a thin range and it does not look like a convincing bull run imho. What say you old timers?
Personally I'd love to see this thing sell off like crazy... but.. that's just cus I'm a piker. The market stalling here is a good sign for bulls not a negative sign. In fact, it should meander a bit here if it wants to continue higher without getting slammed.
Re-read the post dude! I mentioned the lack of follow through this morning not yesterday afternoon! Now pass the crack pipe back thx.
That 1966 parallel is only if you are playing indices, and IF at that. I do believe in history repeating itself sometimes, but we aren't going to tell when that will be til hindsight. Further, there's already a huge discrepancy in the map... you notice that in 1966 there was a 600 point drop we didn't parallel in 2007? They took a HUGE dump, and we went up in our 'correlation'. Pretty enormous move to simply skip over wouldn't you say? And even if you want to call the correlation, we are on the UP leg of that move before another down. This is no news, what goes up, must come down. That's the entire nature of the market, it's a matter of when you bought and sold in that up and down. In the meantime, if you pick your stocks carefully, do unemotional due diligence research before you buy (there ARE companies that perform well even during recessions and crashes), ignore other people's personally biased pumps to dump (most article writers), and buy only when others are selling (this is the big one for me, contrary as it is), it's pretty hard to lose. Finally, if you're worried anyway, cover your longs with options. Can you lose money doing the above? You could, but you'd have to try really hard to. The people who have to sweat are those who only play indices. How would you know how ALL the companies are going to do, vs those you focus on and follow? One's educated guessing, the other is just guessing.
You are basically saying you can pick whatever few winners there will be in the event of a protracted and particularly nasty market correction or bear market. Maybe.
I would have to say that yesterday may have been the follow through, but the follow through was on the fed meeting and nothing else. If the market propped up 150 points without the fed statement at 2:15 I would say the bulls won that one. I think the market may have little upside left but we will revisit lows around 12,000.
I think you, myself and a few others here are the only ones who think this is simply a pullback to resistance/fibs. Even if we turn out to be wrong we have history on our side where all the permabulls just fart out whatever macroeconomic crap suits them. At the very least I would hope that a real trader understands the market is about longer term psychology not whatever announcement the fed makes that particular day.