Bull to bear market

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mr_byte31, Oct 11, 2018.

  1. I want to know how to identify a switch from bull to bear?
    I read many things in market wizard. Things like $tick can help.

    I thing a 50MA going below a 200MA would confirm a bear market?!
     
  2. by the time that happens market is already down 10% and then you short the medium term low at best The first death cross in 201#5 marked the low since almost to the day
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
  3. What is the best way in your idea to identify that early??
     
  4. No way to "identify early".

    However, you can make a "guess play" at something significant. One such play which is obvious right now (but not "obviously correct" as of yet) is the 2X top in the Dow.
     
  5. maxinger

    maxinger

    traders don't have to bother about bull or bear markets.
    we just need to know if market is tradable or not.
     
  6. Disagree.

    You're always "trading around a bias", even if you don't acknowledge it. (Stated it this way so that we don't have to suffer the dumbass response... "I never have any bias, I just trade.")
     
    FriskyCat likes this.
  7. Nothing more than a structural misstep. Look at that low volume on the down side (SPY).
     
    tommcginnis likes this.
  8. maxinger

    maxinger

    No problem to disagree.
     
    tommcginnis likes this.
  9. Personally, I believe having the correct bias is the #1 most important concern to trading success. When you get into a string of losers, it's almost always because you held the wrong bias.
     
    yc47ib, FriskyCat and bigsnack like this.
  10. tomorton

    tomorton

    Don't let anyone tell you its now a bull market or its now a bear market, and certainly don't act blindly on what they say. Nobody knows with certainty which way the market will go. But certainty of market action is not necessary for profitable trading, only absolute certainty of what you will do about it.

    All my trades are trend-following on the basis that where price has been rising it will probably continue to rise than start to fall. You need to set out categorically what chart features would be needed in order to get you to buy and then only buy when you see these. You need to set out what changes in these features would make you get out and then pay attention to them. Obviously I was stopped out yesterday and am now waiting for chart to become either more bullish or more bearish according to my strategy rules. These might be very different from yours but what's important is to have a comprehensive plan and follow it.
     
    #10     Oct 11, 2018