Bull Run holding strong

Discussion in 'Trading' started by John9999, Aug 9, 2018 at 4:45 PM.

  1. John9999

    John9999

    I am no longer on the fence,,, this market (especially Nasdaq) is jut going up. I believe alot of it is the fuel from corporate buy back programs. No longer am I looking to take on shorts. Any down turn is an exit of my long and looking to re-enter on resumption of up leg.

    And summer is almost over, this is gonna be interesting going into end of Q3 and Q4
     
    niko79542 likes this.
  2. I think the bull run holds so long as the 4 Horsemen, AAPL-AMZN-GOOGL-MSFT keep moving upwards.

    Due to the weighted nature of the NDX, these 4 stocks alone accounted for 56% of the NDX gain in 2017. From the APR 2, 2018 low to today, the 4 Horsemen accounted for 67% of the NDX gain. Everything else in the NDX contributed just 33% of the up move. So these 4 are contributing an even higher share as the market breadth gets smaller.

    If one of these pulls a FB or NFLX, then that is probably the sign a correction is ready to begin, but if they all keep their uptrends in tact the melt up should continue. I think the market needs all 4 of these pushing higher to sustain this bull momentum. If one of the Horsemen gets lame, all bets are off.

    For longer time trades, one option to consider when exiting and re-entering on the dips is to buy out of the money calls in these 4 instead of buying the NQ. If the bull continues after a dip, the outsized moves of the Horsemen will outperform the NQ. This approach will also limit exposure risk in case the market ever does crack again like it did in February.
     
    paulchaney likes this.
  3. tomorton

    tomorton


    I agree with observation the market is rising. I don't ever try to divine where uptrends will end, I just go long to be with them.

    And I will get out at any weakness, but what is your definition of a downturn? What is the detail of your exit plan?
     
  4. John9999

    John9999

    for me,... my exit of my Long is a 5PM closing (I trade NQ Mini Future) that is below the 10day Moving average... then I look to re-enter a new long on a close above. This also assumes that the 20day and 60day MA are in line as well. BUT I would not be able to call it a down trend unless the order was 60 day... 20 day,, then 10 day.. all full crossovers... that has not happened all year.. not even the correction at begining of Feb
     
    tomorton likes this.
  5. John9999

    John9999

    like this.. the last short full crossover from a daily chart is Jan 2016 and the down trend lasted into Feb Capture.PNG
     
  6. tomorton

    tomorton


    Like it John, we closely agree on technique. For my main position, my 3 mandatory criteria for an uptrend are 20EMA above the 50, 50 sloping upwards and price above the 200. I get out of longs that close below the 20.

    Actually, I had closed almost all my long-side positions on the US indices before that point in Feb due to number of points lost from the highs. As price barely got below the 200EMA, this set-up never gave me a downtrend to short, but "my" uptrend resumed 17/05 when the 20 went above the 50, which had already started to rise.

    I also use weaker trending set-ups for shorter-term trades but these are never more than 1% capital risk trades and I don't build these positions up by pyramiding.

    Looking forward to some more upside to the Dow etc. this year. Onwards and upwards.
     
  7. John9999

    John9999

    daily update.. although we did trade below MA10, and had we closed under I would have closed out my Long... we are closing above MA10,,,, so the up swing that started on 08/02 at 7333 continues Capture.PNG
     
  8. You can use the Supertrend indicator to do a nice long-only strategy on any of the indices, uses a vol-based trailing stop to switch between bull and bear.

    I've tried doing a long and short strategy but taking short signals always ends up being net unprofitable on the short side over a long term backtest. You win in 2008/09 but lose a lot shorting from 2010 on.

    NQ
    [​IMG]

    YM
    [​IMG]

    NQ is a little more profitable on a risk-adjusted basis but you have to put your stop twice as far out.
     
  9. John9999

    John9999

    I agree. I’ve plYed with supertrend but never really used it. I was a long and short trader till recently. Maybe some day we get to go short. But not now
     
  10. John9999

    John9999

    HMMM... 2 trading days in a row that we breach the 10Day Moving Average, and now we close right at the MA. I could make a case that we are at a short term support and the long that started on 08/02 continues.. or we break below and look for new support.

    comments?

    Capture.PNG