I suppose the only bear case is. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow each remain trapped between support of their prior highs from March and resistance of their 50-day moving averages. It's bullish that the retracement off the March highs has not been very steep. However, it's bearish that the indices are consolidating below their 50-day moving averages. The S&P 500, for example, has retraced less than one-third of its gain from the March 14 low to the March 23 high, but the index has tried and failed to rally back above its 50-day MA in each of the past three sessions. So I think (it pains me to even think this way) that the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow could be in both intermediate and short-term downtrends without me knowing it. My account is going UP!.
Gold down $6 Oil to fade hard late I hope (cold weather moving east though) If it was sunny and 60 we would be up 100 already. Slow and steady build and explosion into the close would be my guess. Then everyone is gone thursday and as usual I will force the issue and probably lose some money.
Looks like the buying on the good news is being used to unload positions. Looking at GS, BKX, and HGX as indicators of where we are going next. Gold didn't sell off much and is being bought again.
Today is like a bunch of guys playing poker and everybody has a crappy hand. They are all waiting to see what everybody else will do or bet. You can bluff your way to small winnings today.
being a short holiday week, I don't expect much to happen after yesterday's gap up and rally. If anything is to happen, more likely next week. Next phase is going to be earnings which should be more exciting. Better to conserve cash and wait for the real good moves and avoid the chop of today or tomorrow. And don't forget Monday is holiday in the rest of the world, so will be quiet too. Only thing I am watching right now is crude oil and oil stocks, and they too are caught in a bull rally with hardly a let up (I am short via puts). Bias seems to favor bulls .... http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
lauriston I rarely comment on your comments because you seem to be a blogger but don't you find it interesting a big jobs report would be released when stocks are not trading? I believe the bond market will do one of it's half days not sure... Bull RAIDS happen when VOLUME IS LOW! WATCH OUT BEARS!..... ~stoney.
Stoney, you need to pack another bowl. The fed won't cut rates, and the manufacturing and service sector data is nothing short of abysmal. Housing, mortgage lending, manufacturing and now service sector, all terrible, while core inflation remains elevated... ...not exactly a bullish setup.