I don't know what will happen monday...lol...What I was trying to say is that I'm long now based on current activity but have no way of knowing if this is the start of an advance...if it is...how high it will go or how long it will last. I guess what I should have said is I am prepared to exit monday if conditions change. No forecasting for me... Of course I could also stay long for months if needed... Nick
Nick, This may or may not help. I do not day trade. I started seriously accumulating stocks last monday, buying on the dips. Mostly, the COMPX since that's what I follow. I'm looking to add to those positions on any pullbacks. As of friday, I can count the second advance, from the thursday lows, as a subdivided completed structure. It can always extend, of course. On monday, I'm looking to add to my positions on a correction of this wave. I see solid support between 2135 and 2140 COMPX, about a 38% - 50% retracement. See chart below. A drop to 2108 would abort my entire near term scenario. Tony
It's more like having a plan than trying to predict and make up your mind on your trades for good: prepare yourself for the most probable scenario; right or wrong you'll always be ready to react accordingly if things don't turn out the way you hoped for. You can always have in place an emergency plan to take a specific course of actions when your previous views are invalidated I could make a comparison with the state of awareness I use to to push into my mind when trade: when I enter my positions I won't be discounting the fact the trade might be wrong, on the contrary, I immediately expect the market to turn against me, therefore I look at the best price could be available to cut my losses even if the trade looks to be going my way and keep this attitude 'till breakeven. After that I look at my profit targets and move my mental stp but I will always be ready to expect the unexpected.
I appreciate the honesty of your work. As to your analysis, while I do not doubt what EW is telling you, I will tell you that there is major resistance at ES 1250/DOW 11000. That does not mean that we won't go through these levels, but that many players will enter there to sell the markets with the odds on their side. Longer term (two months) 1275 seems very possible. I am not sure of the timeframe in your projected analysis... This is not based on any particular analysis on my part, just from being in the trenches day in and day out. nitro
TY Nitro... Interesting that you mentioned those levels. Another friend of mine is a chart enthusiast. Wrote this to him yesterday: Robb, Great charts! COMPX: looks like 2170 is a great place to end wave 1, as a couple indices have already moved throught the 50 dma. SPX: likewise for 1242 here. INDU: and 10,700 here too. His charts: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936 Imagine we will bump into these trendlines, completing the first wave up, correct, and then bust through them with the dynamics of a wave 3.
nitro, sorry I edited the post ... a better link. and your right 1242 INX ... i'm too tuned into the COMPX