I would have to agree.... forecasting is futile.... How can you tell when a rally will start or even predict it will last till 2007. Trading has nothing to do with forecasting. Nick
Hi nick, My technical indicators and EW tell me when to start looking for a bottom/top, based upon how they have acted, historically, and in this market. Then, I just need to identify the turn. It's anticipating, not forecasting --- it's not the weather appreciate your viewpoint tony
www.bloomberg.com excerpt ... ( note .. this gentleman is not expecting as much upside as some of you guys ) ( no I am not a bear ... just realistic on how this yr has been for many ) -The big prop for this market has been the earnings story,'' said Jon Brorson, who helps manage $72 billion as head of growth investing at Neuberger Berman Inc. in Chicago. Hurricanes can't ``seem to stop that locomotive. Near term, we are optimistic on the basis of earnings.- -Brorson expects the S&P 500 to finish 2005 at 1300, which would represent an increase of 5.8 percent from yesterday's close-
I'm with you as far as going long is concerned... I just went long friday... But i have no idea if we will continue to rally or not. I could be flat by monday if needed. I think one can anticipate the direction on a short term basis based of current market activity. But trying to anticipate the strength and duration of the move is next to impossible IMO... Nick
Seth, Appreciate that article, didn't realize this fact: "For the July-to-September period, the S&P 500 advanced 3.2 percent, while the Dow average added 2.9 percent and the Nasdaq rallied 4.6 percent. All three had their best quarterly performance since the three months ended December 2004, while the S&P 500 had its best third quarter since 1997." momentum building? reposted these targets today on my blog: "I'm anticipating an INX (currently 1229) between 1310 - 1370, and INDU (10,569) between 11,210 - 11,910 (an all time high), and a COMPX (2152) between 2440 - 2610 over the next few months." tony... thx
Nick, Under normal circumstances I would totally agree with you. Corrections are extremely difficult, because there are so many variations of pattern. But, impulse waves are far more reliable, they are always fives. And, my MMI (market momentum indicator) always catches the peak of the thrust of the advance. I've been doing this for so long it has become secondary to me. Positioning oneself at the beginning of the advance, to get the maximum return, with minimum risk, is always the challenge. I don't short, so I am out of the market 1/2 the time. Day trading, on the other hand, is not my forte. Intermediate term moves are. We all need our own specialites to make money. And, I hope we all do! Regardless of our approach. tony
How can you know what will happen on monday? You might be more aware on monday morning by having a look at the fut. or during the out-cry session. I think it is much more difficult to predict short term movement where there's a lot of noise that don't give realistic valuation in determining oversold/overbought conditions while you can always have a better shot at gauging the overall longer term direction the market might be heading by looking at trends and change in trends. That's why when daytrading you are more likely to trade what you see, while when swing trading you may rely more on fundamentals. Of course that's just MO. PP
I just do not see this yr being a repeat of last yr 's post Bush re election euphoria whats going to be the drivers for a 10-20 percent move in 3 months?
I think It was more close to 10% Anyway I agree that's probably not gonna happen, but we might see some good upside on this market if the fed signals is done and oil prices ease. Christmas rally is a repetitive thing though and it might turn up to be a tentative one but still it could be responsible for a 5-7% move.
Hi guys! I have never known what the catalyst would before a move. But it's always obvious after I posted this on my blog earlier in the week, it might help: Since the bull market began in Oct. 2002, the INX has provided only four momentum bottoms: Mar.'03, Aug.'03, Aug.'04 and Apr.'05. In each of the three previous bottoms this index has rallied between 15% - 26%. Thus far it has only managed a meager 8% advance from the April '05 low. Also, the INDU has provided five momentum bottoms: Mar.'03, May.'03, Jly.'03, Oct.'04 and Apr.'05. In each of the previous four bottoms this index has rallied between 12% - 19%. Thus far, it has only managed a 7% advance from its April lows. Thus, I feel both indices are in position to move higher without the need of a major momentum bottom.