bull market has resumed

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by gharghur2, Oct 1, 2005.

  1. According to my work, as I posted earlier in the week, the market is in the early stages of the next major advance. Maybe we'll even see 'all time new highs' in the DOW.

    All the major indices are now in sync to launch the next major advance in this bull market. After the COMPX became sufficiently oversold, on my MMI a week ago, it has started impulsing up in very nice constructive waves. I can now count 5 waves up from the 9/22 intraday low of 2093 into the 9/26 high of 2133. Then a very bullish corrective double flat ending 9/29 at 2108. And over the past two days, a subdivided 5 waves up right into friday's close of 2152. I've labeled these waves 1-2-3 of wave one of minute wave iii, with waves 4-5 to occur over the next few days. This is only the very beginning of the advance: see 10 day chart.

    Short term support in the COMPX is now around 2135 - 2140. This represents a 23% - 38% retracement of the wave 3 thurs-fri advance. The initial advance, wave 1 last thurs-mon, corrected about 62%. Have a great week!

  2. will we have another bull market like in 1999 probably not but when do you see another decent bull market
  3. Hi!

    Right now! It just started! Maybe 20+% upside in the next few months ahead.

    1999 was a blowoff top ... like 1929

    1942 - 1966 was a classic bull market ... we will see that again, but not now

    1932 - 1937 was the last cycle one bull market ... this I feel is what we are seeing now.


  4. so we will never see another 1999 bull market again and when will we see another 1942 -1966 market
  5. When? Good question :)

    If, and that's a big IF, history repeats itself:
    this bull market will last till 2007.
    then 5 years of going sideways till 2012.
    then, maybe another bull market like the 40's thru 60's.

    But then again, anything is possible with all the liquidity and wealth in this country. We'll just have to see how it all unfolds day by day. good luck!

  6. Not sure how exactly they'll correlate but given that this is considered the last leg of the bull market and volatility is tight isn't anyone worried to find himself in the futures with an even tighter trading range if the market will go sideways?

    After all given also the overall uncertainty, liquidity will increase and range decrease if sideline money would come into the market.

    Or is anyone expecting volatility to increase in the next few years?

  7. Hey PP,

    I think the volatility has subsided due the the recent wave structures unfolding in the markets, and substantially lower interest rates. We had a big run up, after the supercyclical oversold condition of 2000 - 2002.

    Since Jan '04, the markets have basically gone sideways with an upward bias.


    I believe that volatility will return as wave 4's are typically more violent in nature than wave 2's ... which we have experienced since Aug. '04. And, rates continue to rise.

  8. Well lower rates are a problem, there have been 11 or 12 rate hikes with minimal effect. How are they going to raise long term rates? Will we need to see 15 more rate hikes?
  9. Hi T--Glad to hear that.
    I'd be happy to see again SIRI move 20% a day
    and it wasn't that far back,... just 2004.

    When the fed will be done we'll see quite a sustantial relief rally and I expect to be there for the taking.


  10. Who is going to pay for this big bull run in equities?
    #10     Oct 1, 2005