Its nice to look after the fact and make such comparisons. But in reality there is no comparison. 1987 crash is not even remotely similar to any type of crash we had in history of markets. I agree 1929 dow and Nasdaq crash are similar but how can u draw support and resistance from past historical scenerios. If you want to relate to 1929. then the nasdaq should be making new lows in the coming years is that what u are saying? --MIKE
I highly doubt that you actually "trade what you think, and trade what you see" because you obviously are only able to dribble the ball one way and one way only. I have been trading the ES and ZB for quite some time now, using pivots and fib retracements along with a few simply MA's in a very successful manner. Yet, I have noticed that your always speak in such a general and ambiguous manner that it really adds no value to anyone. You say that the "market" will be going down even more from here, but yet you don't specify what stock groups or indexes. Does that mean that you are also bearish on the housing stocks that continue to climb, and the defense stocks that continue to rally, or the brokerage issues that are just coming off 52-week highs? Trend Fader, all you do is "paste and cut" articles from Yahoo on consumer debt or terrorism or high oil prices, yet I really wonder how anyone can trade off that kind of information . . . You talk about all of this money that you have been making on the short side, yet I have never, ever seen you post on ET a specificshort trade on stock. Instead, it has all just been a lot of "general" bearishness that doesn't have any specific value whatsoever, and you go onto say how the market is so dynamic that it ignores support/resistance levels, fibonacci levels, historical parameters, etc. And that every day and week and month and market cycle is unique and cannot be measured. One even wonders why you even come on to ET to chat with others since you have already admitted that you don't use cute little charts. Everything appears to be worthless to you as far as indicators and technical analysis is concerned, but get ahold of a Yahoo link to an article on higher oil prices, terrorism, unemployment, or consumer credit card debt that you can "paste and cut" onto ET and you go nuts. Amazing how anyone can trade off of those.
Simple short the SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ. If you short any rally intraday or 1-2 day rally on the dailys you would of made nice coin. Simple as that.. gee i actually made money w/o using technical mombo jumbo. --MIKE
I would have to say that the Trend Fader's of the world are certainly in the minority when it comes to taking a look at historical market cycles and using various moving averages, fib ratios, and time and duration studies, pivots, etc., to analyze the markets and quantify the "greed and fear" factors of human nature. As for using fib ratios, I dare anyone to take a look at the oversold rally that took place back in September of 1987 off the August highs and not come up with the fact that the Dow Jones peaked right at a prominent fib retracement before heading into the decline that resulted in the October 1987 "Crash". Perhaps Trend Fader ought to call up Ned Davis and tell old Ned that all of his work is totally meaningless. Too bad many of the largest institutions and hedge funds subscribe to the guy as well. I guess they don't really know what they are doing, and neither does Ned. :eek:
So Trend Fader, if you don't use any sort of technical tools whatsoever, then why even appear on ET, if not to brag, right? Oh wait . . . I get it. You are must like Manolo, James Stock, Romeo, GrandmasterBS, Anthony Trader, Chapabraca, and a bunch of other aliases that suffer from such an insecurity complex that you need to see your name on a website "calling the top" so that everyone else can bow down to you. Now I get it!
Top calls have been made every month for almost a year on ET. I'm also sure you I have seen you make them a bit before than a month ago so therefore your credibility in your last call is weak. Plus there is the alias issue. Waggie points out an important point. The direction of this market is important to both intradays & swings. I do both, mostly the first but swings with options is looking more and more lucrative to me. But it is also important to me because my highly profitable intraday strategies from October to first week of February simply do not work at all anymore and therefore if the market will not continue an uptrend I have to quickly adjust. If it will continue up, I can just wait it out and take it very easy for now. This is a very strange and interesting market nowdays. A lot of bear sentiment and a lot of bull sentiment. Then there is the election and the fact that the whole economic recovery has really been a bunch of crap. So if waggie wants to make a post about corrections in previous bull markets, I find it educational because it does give a new perspective. It's 10 times better than the bullshit top calls that have been made with ZERO reasoning behind them.
A top call can only be right on the day it is called if that day is the top and subsequently proves to be so. Mind you such calls, bottoms or tops, are always a pretty useless exercise .. harmless though they be .. but they do keep being made on ET by various contributors. IMO the key is to build and harness a model (ie DOW) that calls for you, with reliable predictability, the top or bottom, within a range, for each trading day session: they're zero sum based calibrations of course.
You go Waggie; keep the posts coming. I don't always agree, but I do appreciate your fact-based analyses.
On April 2 we will be 38 days from the top. On April 2 if the <a href="http://www.ntsearch.com/search.php?q=jobs&v=55">jobs</a> report is good, and we are technically fixed, then it is my guess that the correction will therein end. Also April 2 is a friday which means that the following weekend adds two days to charts, and makes monday 41 days from the top. To be added if friday is a last ditch effort to sell.
I'm gonna take a shameless attempt here to plug my post and thread that I started yesterday in which I indicated that there was major fibonacci support at SPX: 1087 Today's intra-day low: 1087.16