Buffett's Letter -- Sneak Peek

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Babak, Mar 3, 2003.

  1. The market silver manipulation appeared in the news (see AP Press below) but as usual the untouchable will never be caught. In fact the testimony above was done by Martin Armstrong in a private letter to a friend although his name has been mentionned by the journalist, he surely didn't dare to tell officially the whole story.

    "Possible investigation looms for silver price manipulation

    CHICAGO (AP) _ Silver prices have shined for months because of strong demand or market manipulation, depending on whom you believe.

    But the metal has lost its luster recently amid reports of possible investigations and lawsuits into allegations a group is attempting to corner the market and drive prices higher.

    Silver futures prices shot up last year as inventories of the metal in exchange warehouses fell to their lowest level in more than 12 years amid reports of surging world demand for its use in amateur photography and jewelry.

    But prices began to slide in late December, and tumbled further last week amid speculation that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the industry regulating body for futures and options, has launched an investigation into possible manipulation of the silver market.

    The commission, as is its practice, declined to comment on whether an investigation is or will be underway.

    Martin Armstrong, president of the advisory group Princeton Economics International, has argued for weeks that the silver market is being manipulated. He was quoted Monday by The Financial Times in London as saying a lawsuit seeking class-action status will be filed soon by a group of lawyers he declined to identify.

    Armstrong's comments reinforced rumors that roiled the market last week, causing prices to fall sharply.

    Silver for March delivery tumbled an additional 16.3 cents, or 2.9 percent, Monday to $5.475 a troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. At the height of its rally, on Dec. 23, silver for March delivery reached a nine-year high of $6.243 an ounce.

    To be sure, rumors of manipulation have been in the market since late fall. A Merrill Lynch analyst warned in mid-October that a syndicate of U.S.-based investors and traders controlled huge stockpiles of silver in New York and London and was seeking to buy more for storage in warehouses not monitored by the New York exchange to create a shortage and push prices to $9 an ounce.

    As long as futures have been traded, there have been rumors and innuendo _ often fruitless _ that someone with deep pockets is attempting to corner a specific market by buying huge quantities of a commodity when prices are low and selling them after they reach a desired price.

    Such a scenario offers the potential for huge gains _ or great losses.

    In 1996, copper prices collapsed after it was discovered a trader for Sumitomo Corp., which controlled 5 percent of the market, had hidden billions of dollars in speculative losses. And the silver market collapsed in early 1980, leaving the Hunt brothers with $1 billion in losses, after they first drove the price up from $6 an ounce to more than $50 an ounce in less than a year.

    But in both those examples, prices were on the rise at a time when supplies were plentiful. Silver demand since 1990, however, has far outpaced production amid soaring use of silver nitrate for amateur photography in Russia and China. Silver also has benefited from increased jewelry buying in India and elsewhere and its growing use in electronics.

    Demand for silver in 1996 jumped 4.4 percent to 814.9 million ounces, while supply from mine output and recycling grew only 2.5 percent to 643.4 million ounces, according to the Washington-based trade group, the Silver Institute.

    Some analysts also have cited silver's growing use as an investment option, given the gold market's collapse because of a supply glut and increasing sales from central banks. "


     
    #11     Aug 29, 2003
  2. If true we can now suspect where a part if not all of Warren Buffet's fortune comes from: less from his talent than from his "network" and that his reputation is built on a false myth.
     
    #12     Aug 29, 2003
  3. The Associated Press on 9-4 reported that: “The FBI is warning that terrorists might try to poison food or water supplies, and senior bureau officials said Thursday that al Qaeda is determined to attack Americans at home even though the organization appears to have a relatively small U.S. presence.”

    small means they don't want to frighten completely : this is only an intermediate top not the super top yet haha !


     
    #13     Sep 7, 2003
  4. Didn't Buffet say that people should hold off on buying b/c they'll have better buying opportunities at lower prices later. He said something to this affect when the Dow was around ~8500? I believe.

    So he was way off on that.
     
    #14     Sep 7, 2003
  5. From Elder's Book: "One of my friend who manages the trading department of a bank, makes his decision on enquiries by a group of men coming from CIA and WORK FOR HIM."

    From ex future trader and now novelist Linda Davies (see FROM THE SUNDAY TIMES "THE WOMAN WHO WOULDN'T PLAY CITY BOYS' GAMES" http://authorpages.hoddersystems.com/LindaDavies/article.asp) :
    on his brother's site Roy http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/linda.html

    "The scope for crime was immense. I sat down one day and wondered what would be the biggest, most spectacular crime that could be committed. I tried to think like a criminal. How would I make a fortune? How could I bridge the gap between the City and the world at large off which it feeds?"
    One afternoon, in July 1991, Linda Davies asked herself those questions and they led her to think of the perfect crime and to start writing.

    "I didn't want to write about a parochial insider trading case. I wanted to show the links between governments and central banks and the City, and the role that the <B>intelligence services</B> now have in business and finance. <B>The City is a perfect cover for spies</B>."

    "Linda gave up her City job to write full time and Nest of Vipers was published in Britain in 1994 and in the United States in 1995. Three years later, a former <B>British secret agent</B>, Richard Tomlinson, alleged that <B>MI6 had a spy in the Bundesbank</B> code-named Orcada, who provided inside information on Germany's proposed interest rate movements - a claim that could almost have come straight from the pages of Nest of Vipers! In 1999 another former British agent alleged the Russians were spying on banks in the City of London - another example of the novel's topicality and prescience."

    From one of her novel:
    http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/mirrors.html

    "Over the past 60 years the Central Selling Organisation [of De Beers] has done for diamonds something that eluded the oil producers of OPEC and even the cocaine barons of the Medellin cartel ... and it built a syndicate not for weeks or months but for decades."
    "<B>The intelligence services</B> ... are close to De Beers, they exchange favours. Diamond prospectors have a reason to travel the world, into Russia, Angola, South Africa, anywhere."

     
    #15     Sep 7, 2003

  6. What timeframe do you suppose he was implying?

    It may not be that he is way off but right on, and that you are way off in your assumptions. Another possibility ... but go ahead and believe what you want, you are entitled.
     
    #16     Sep 7, 2003
  7. m22au

    m22au

    You beat me to it, Bluehorseshoe

     
    #17     Sep 7, 2003
  8. Oh that's all they found "Space storm coming to Earth" :D
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=23725

     
    #18     Oct 24, 2003
  9. By Susan Lerner, CBS.MarketWatch.com
    Last Update: 1:19 PM ET Nov. 17, 2003

    NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks fell to their worst levels of the day Monday afternoon as security concerns pummeled markets around the globe in the wake of several weekend terrorist attacks.


     
    #19     Nov 17, 2003
  10. MARKET SNAPSHOT

    Stocks finish lower as rally fails
    Good economic reports don't offset blow of terror attacks

    By Susan Lerner, CBS.MarketWatch.com
    Last Update: 4:44 PM ET Nov. 20, 2003



    http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={BE53A0D0-C1B6-41BF-A1D5-C28084F5331C}&siteid=mktw

    "There's an awful lot of headwind facing investors at this point. We're looking obviously at what happened overnight in Istanbul. There are concerns regarding China and the possible escalation of a trade war there. There are concerns about what's going on in the mutual fund industry," said Kevin Caron, market strategist at Ryan, Beck & Co. Listen to the interview.

    Caron thinks, however, that investors are really keying off continued improvement in the underlying health of the economy as was evident by an intraday rebound that followed the early sell-off in stocks after new bombings in Istanbul, Turkey, killed at least 27 and injured nearly 450.
     
    #20     Nov 21, 2003