Our discussion boils down to one basic premise. You put your faith in USD, a fiat currency with 20 Trillion debt and growing rapidly, knowing that not a single fiat currency in history has failed to crash. And, I put my faith in BTC and LTC, despite their volatility, for the long term because they are outside the system. Even you used the word "forseeable future" in regard to the USD. The USD will probably still be King for my remaining years but you young pups will see something that you never dreamed could happen.
ONE OF the basic premises - yes you summed up well.. my rebuttal is 2 fold: 1) what has gold done in past crisis? 1929 - flat, 1987 - down, 2000 - down, 2008 - down.. the track record ain't great... yet you are putting faith in something that hasn't even been tested in a crisis. 2) Not to mention gold cannot be replaced by other physical substance, while any digital currency can be replaced by technology advancement... tomorrow we may have quantum computing that can crack the entire block chain as we know it and that blows btc out of water; tomorrow we may have some hash graph protocol that is several magnitude faster and safer than block chains... who knows The other premise is the value proposition - why hold some non-producing assets when it is probably in a bubble, while in the mean time we are in one of the biggest economic boom and the SP500 is yielding 6% on forward earnings. You may be a creative person, but your arguments for btc is nothing original... $20t in the debt, so what - on the way from 0 to $20t, every number probably looked big at the time, only to be diminished with more debt and more productivity... the pie is getting bigger as we speak.. as long as the missiles and the carrier battle groups are there, it can be $200t and we can still print more. Your arguments for BTC are exactly what the pushers have tried to sell to the public.. but why is the house so short... https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment And in your many decades of investing... has the house ever lost? equities, metals, currencies, oil, now bitcoin.. Wall Street will game anything... when have they ever lost, to the retail traders? Good luck.
You represent your position well and sound like you could be an officer at the Federal Reserve. I don't think they could have said it better. The missiles and battle groups can destroy our enemies but they will be worthless when an economy that is built on debt and held together by historically non normal zero interest rates, finally collapses under its own mismanagement. I really hope it can hold together as my retirement is based on it. Bitcoin is my hedge and should it goes to zero it will have zero effect on my well being. Thanks for the wishes of Good Luck and back to you as well. ET is a great place to hang out.
this is not directed personally... but I want to take a slight turn on this topic. Beware of popular feel good stories. Go on youtube (or the net in general for that matter). search for 'stock market crash', or 'gold and silver'... you see lots of results...and notice the like/dislike feature in youtube, an excellent gauge of sentiment... you will find lots of gold/silver salesman videos, with extremes of 100:1 like/dislike ratio.. this shows you how crowded retail is on the long side. Seems the same thing is happening to BTC. Doom and gloom sells.. it captures your attention and make seek protection. This is programmed in the human DNA. Yet you look at the gold performance in recent years.... crowded trades rarely work out. The house, aka the smart money, never carries the dumb money to heaven. After years of consolidation, the next big move for gold will be down, because the crowded retail will be the panic sell fuel. And you already know my opinion on BTC.
With all due respect, did it collapse under the debt burdens of any of the world wars ? No. Economic expansion exploded afterwards. My point is that is the beauty of the capitalistic/democratic system..it adapts. Crypto may have a place, but it is not replacing anything. I hope you live to 120 yrs old in good health, betcha you still have a couple of benjies in your wallet for the ladies !
I don't care about your opinion(or anyone else's)... Nothing personal too... And, in case you didn't understand the guy's post I complimented(which seems the case), the idea here is that cryptocurrencies are not "a trade"... There are much more suitable instruments for trading... Cryptocurrencies are simply a better alternative to government issued currencies... The points made by the guy are extremely valid. Personally, I'm not that optimistic about bitcoin in particular, but I really don't care which cryptos get through... As in any free market, the great majority will fail miserably and the one's who took a chance with these will lose money. But the very few cryptos that pass the "market's test" will be the one's who will be used. And given the possibilities that they open to regular people(when it really gets widespread acceptance, which will take time), the substitution of government issued currencies will be a simple matter of time... At which point, some really socioeconomic experiments will naturally take place... When governments finally lose their most valueable and efficient method of control(their currencies), freedom will work it's wonders... This will happen, I just hope I live long enough to see it.
So let's play your scenario out. So no one has any idea which which will be the flavour of the day when it comes to crypto. Question one..the Italian bakery hedging wheat prices out of Nebraska in the futures market, which do they use ? Question two.."some really socioeconomic experiments" will....care to be more specific ? Or is this just more anarcharistic hype that this time "it will bring the man down" ? Oh, and also the Italian baker.
It's inappropriate to ask that kind of question on a public forum unless the person voluntarily discloses it (i.e. a journal listing the numbers). I have disclosed in one of my posts that I will hold and not sell the equivalent of 20 bitcoin in cryptos no matter what until next year so that information is public.