Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by NUTSNEAL, Mar 8, 2004.

  1. Couldn't justify putting Buffet in a Trading Thread so chose Econ

    Buffet's Letter to Shareholders

    "We are neither enthusiastic nor negative about the portfolio we hold. We own pieces of excellent
    businesses – all of which had good gains in intrinsic value last year – but their current prices reflect their
    excellence. The unpleasant corollary to this conclusion is that I made a big mistake in not selling several of
    our larger holdings during The Great Bubble. If these stocks are fully priced now, you may wonder what I
    was thinking four years ago when their intrinsic value was lower and their prices far higher.
    So do I."

    "During 2002 we entered the foreign currency market for the first time in my life, and in 2003 we
    enlarged our position, as I became increasingly bearish on the dollar. I should note that the cemetery for
    seers has a huge section set aside for macro forecasters. We have in fact made few macro forecasts at
    Berkshire, and we have seldom seen others make them with sustained success."
  2. just goes to show what a joker ( albeit a very rich one ) buffett is.

  3. What makes you believe that he's a joker. Seems to get many more of them right than wrong. I've read all his letters many times over. Really great material there.

    He's made me money so no complaints (only got one share though).

    BTW: I was thinking of going to vote that share. Are any of the ET guys going to that meeting, or is owning stock for more than an hour way too long term for the guys here? If you are going, it'd be fun to hang.
  4. ertrader1

    ertrader1 Guest

    Buffet is a joker and if you talk to NV you will learn truly why. However, he did enter the curriencies at a good time and did well on that trade.

    The yahoos that follow buffet, ie INVESTORS are in stock.....so, the Jokers are all these sheep that are long....not buffet this TIME>

  5. exactly.

    surfer :)
  6. Who's NV?
  7. ertrader1

    ertrader1 Guest

    Nedierhofer, Vic
  8. It's not every day that a "joker" scalps the bond market for $1 billion, then sells at the exact top, like Buffett did last year. VN, on the other hand, has frequently sold the exact bottom of markets, or bought just before a precipitous fall.

    Interesting to see Buffett finally confess that he screwed up holding onto Gillette and Coke (and others) for too long. I remember in 1998 when Buffett-mania was at its peak, these stocks were 50 times earnings, but growing at 10% a year and buying back inflated stock. I found it astonishing that he didn't sell a single share, despite them being massively overvalued. 6 years later they are down 50% - he could have bought bonds instead and made 7% a year risk-free over the same period.

    So ironically he made much better macro calls - bonds, silver, currencies - over that period than he did micro calls on his core stock holdings. He made money as a Soros-style speculator, and lost it as a folksy homespun stockpicking buy and holder.
  9. I don't know what Buffet is talking about lately. He sounds like a bump but he saved a great deal of tax and take advantage of weak dollars. What is all the complain about?
  10. Buffet underperformed the S&P index this year.
    #10     Mar 8, 2004