It is very interesting that the Buffet announcement came a day before PetroChina's announcement of a takeover bid for PetroKaz worth $4.18B.
In yesterday's IBD I looked at the lt sweet crude chart and there is a big volume drop off on the latest spike up in price
Do you think the richest and most famous investor on the planet would: A: Tell the world what trades he plans to do before he does them, thus allowing every cheapskate, tightwad, Joe Sixpack and EliteTrader to ride along and thus undercut his profits? or B: Lie or otherwise mislead folks so their losses empty into his fund(s)?
last year he made it public that he was betting against the dollar and his losses. Not sure what the timing was though
I don't want to go head to head with WB on anything, but I don't see how there's anything but inflation ahead in oil and a lot of other commoditites. I don't think cheap goods from China can fend off general economy wide inflation either. anyway, here's an article from today that (imho) supports my belief: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...B32-47E9-BB0E-09513BA02FED}&siteid=mktw&dist= NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- There was a deeper significance to this week's report that the China National Petroleum Corporation has made a deal to buy PetroKazakhstan, a Canadian-owned oil producer in the former Soviet Union, for $4.18 billion. It was yet another sign of China's huge new thirst for oil, which is a major reason why petroleum prices have spurted in the last 18 months. But that is only part of the story. Three great forces are now at work in the global economy that may well cause not only oil prices but also prices of many other kinds of commodities to jump. First, now that it is the workshop of the world, China's demand for oil will continue to expand voraciously, moving Beijing to line up secure sources of supply. This it will do by buying foreign oil companies, like PetroKazakhstan, or negotiating purchase deals with them. Second, demand for oil will also keep on growing from a number of other expanding Third World nations, notably India, pitting them in bidding wars with China. Indian companies will probably continue bidding for PetroKazakhstan in hopes of upsetting the deal -- and winning it in the long run. Third, demand both from China and other developing countries will rise not only for oil but also for other commodities needed to feed industry. Already one important consequence is that China is eagerly pursuing a new commodity diplomacy, signing trade agreements with many countries rich in oil and/or other commodities, in return for development aid from Beijing. That way, the Chinese get assured supplies of aluminum, copper, nickel and iron ore. "An unprecedented need for resources is now driving China's foreign policy," write David Zweig and Bi Jianhai, both scholars at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs. They note that China is winning access to key resources, from gold in Bolivia and coal in the Philippines to oil in Ecuador and natural gas in Australia. Beijing is particularly making deals with some of the U.S.'s long-time allies. Brazil's development minister visited Beijing nine times in 2003 and 2004. Trade between China and Latin America has quintupled since 1999, reaching almost $40 billion by the end of last year. "Energy diplomacy," write Zweig and Jianhai, " has also prompted China to seek access to Canada's resources, especially the massive tar sands of Alberta. Since late 2004, Beijing and Ottawa have concluded a series of energy and resource agreements, providing for greater Chinese involvement in developing Canada's natural gas industry, its vast oil sands deposits, and its uranium sector. By treading on what Americas perceive as their turf and vying for resources they also covet, Beijing is stepping on some very sensitive toes." Beijing's search for resources moves it to tighten relations with countries whose civil rights records the U.S. abhors, such as Iran, Sudan and Myranmar, all of which have oil for sale. "Business is business. We try to separate politics from business," said then Deputy Foreign Minister Zhou Wenzhong in 2004. Meanwhile, China's President Hu is urging the country to actively develop oil substitutes. China holds the world's third largest reserves of coal, and it is projected to be the largest producer of nuclear energy by 2050. Beijing stands to become a strong competitor to the U.S. in creating safe and environmentally sound nuclear power and clean coal power -- and marketing the technology to the world. In this sensitive and fast-changing period, the politics of oil could move in any direction. As Zweig and Jianhai write, "Given the White House's current penchant for unilateral intervention and loud voices in Congress calling China a military threat, Beijing might reasonably begin to fear that the United States will try to block its purchases of natural resources to destabilize it. [But] this should not detract from the vast room for cooperation that the country's new energy needs allow. After all, The United States and China share an interest in viable oil prices, secure sea-lanes and a stable international environment, all of which can't help sustain their economic prosperity, and that of the rest of the world." Reporter Sarah K. Wulfeck contributed to this story. Marshall Loeb, former editor of Fortune, Money, and The Columbia Journalism Review, writes "Your Dollars" exclusively for MarketWatch
ptr peaked on august 2 17days before news release http://www.finance24.com/articles/c... 18-1783_1756718 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=860615#post860615