I would also like to acknowledge that for the briefest period prices in the 2008 bear did return to prices in the 2000 bear. It can happen, but shouldn't be relied.
Whether Trump wins or not, the market is probably gonna see a huge correction soon. As it has almost every last election: 2008, 2004, 2000. And considering the two candidates being so completely different, the results is gonna upset alot of people regardless. Just amplifying the effect election will have on the market. Another indicator is how the market has plateued the last 2 year and "experts" saying the majority of stocks are overvalued atm. The correction is highly likely to come soon. Right before or after the election is my bet.
Does this mean we should not trade until after the election? How about the fact that the UK has only just recently voted to leave the EC/EU, which it had been in for 43 years, and thus this is the first US election we are going into with the EC/EU in turmoil. Should we not trade until Brexit is finalized? Because the UK is STILL in the EU. They haven't left it yet. What to do?
I'm not sure how Brexit will affect the US markets, but personally i would trade less/stop investing until the election has passed. Or short if you really know what you are doing, but for most of us i would think leaning off and see what happens around election would be smart. And of course trying to hit the low point if any crash happens would be key. Only 2 months left for the election now. Maybe the feds will increase interest rates then as well, who knows.
This was incorrect, just found out the data represented in my NT charts were all wrong due to incorrect contract rollover dates.
you are asking for secret sauce. It's not a fundamental reason. The reasoning is buried in relative strength studies. You can apply these across currencies, metals, indices. Watch out for gold and silver decoupling their correlation from equities and the dollar, that's when things might heat up.