Buckle up Guys its starting

Discussion in 'Trading' started by propwarrior, Sep 9, 2016.

  1. What compels you to be such a condescending twirp?! Do you suffer from Aspergers, or were you simply born a jerk?
     
    #91     Sep 11, 2016
  2. Are you simply using weekly data?

    Daily closing low on 3/9/2009 = 676.45
    Daily closing high on 8/15/2016 = 2190.15

    223.77%
     
    #92     Sep 11, 2016
  3. Wow, you're right. I scanned through the historical data on yahoo finance. I obviously missed that. As for the high, I was not counting that because you made your original statement about the 220% after Friday's correction.

    Anyhow, the historical average annual returns are really not particularly out of whack. Take a look at this tool.

    https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

    Average of 6% annual return over the last 20 years. That's actually a bit of a yawn. Nothing spectacular. Actually, 8% if you include dividends, but I chose to neglect dividends to account for the impact of income tax and other fees.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2016
    #93     Sep 11, 2016
  4. joezapp

    joezapp

    So you're saying that September being historically the market's worst month is nothing more than mere coincidence, and that this data should not be considered as a basis for trade. I beg to differ, but that's what makes a market. I'll continue to respect the mid-August thru mid-October period in the markets and proceed accordingly, as I've done for the past 25 years without regret. If you want to "throw caution to the wind", go ahead.
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2016
    #94     Sep 12, 2016
    RifffRafff likes this.
  5. no I am not saying that, what I am saying is you have to understand the significance of the data. For me a sample size of 50 is not enough to draw any significant conclusion. If I flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads 30 times, tails 20 times is the next flip more likely to be heads?
    It is human nature to try and look for patterns and then build confirmation bias. Personally for me this kind of decision making is not robust enough.
     
    #95     Sep 12, 2016
  6. S2007S

    S2007S


    Exactly.... Low point was under 700.
     
    #96     Sep 12, 2016
  7. S2007S

    S2007S

    Futures down about 100 on the Dow....not much...I'm sure the bulls will come out to play and cause the markets to regain probably 1/2 of what they lost on friday by either this afternoon or tomorrows close....
    They won't let this market fall.
     
    #97     Sep 12, 2016
  8. S2007S

    S2007S

    Not 1 but 2 fed speakers about to talk more gibberish today, one speaker Dennis Lockhart and the other Lael Brainard.....
    Im sure they will try and be as dovish as possible....
     
    #98     Sep 12, 2016
  9. It's not down much lol I remind you the market hasn't opened yet.
     
    #99     Sep 12, 2016
  10. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    So is elitetrader.
     
    #100     Sep 12, 2016
    propwarrior likes this.