Bubble World

Discussion in 'Trading' started by detective, Oct 29, 2007.

  1. Yep there was no real estate bubble.

    No credit bubble.

    No bubble that has an effect upon other bubbles.



    Good Luck!
     
    #11     Oct 29, 2007
  2. Bear markets are rare events. Historically the current bull phase is just "average" in term of length. Nothing special about it, not more of a bubble than ANY OTHER EQUITY BULL market in history. Too many are blinded by losing their a** in 2001/2002.

    [​IMG]
     
    #12     Oct 29, 2007
  3. or um maybe not

    I have made a ton of money in 2007 and will make even more in 2008.

    All upside ahead

    werd
     
    #13     Oct 29, 2007
  4. Fedheads would love to tube oil, but not boost the dollar. A lower dollar solves a lot of U.S. problems. Stabilize the dollar at these levels maybe.

    Assuming Bernanke et al want to avert a recession but at the same time contain inflation what's their best move Wed.?

    Pabst? Anybody?
     
    #14     Oct 29, 2007
  5. We're in a globaist low interest rate era of easy money tons of spending tons of revenue tons of connectivity network growth. Tons of buying and rising comodities and huuge overseas growth and spending. Web 2.0 tech internet global boom of social networking. Don't fight it. If you fight the smarties you will lose.
     
    #15     Oct 29, 2007
  6. kashirin

    kashirin

    meeting Jessy Jackson he shows he doesn't want to prevent recession and he doesn't care about inflation
    He wants to save his ass

    It's not possible to prevent recession. He must allow housing bubble to deflate.

    The only assistance home owners should get is the government must take all profits from the last 5 years from investments banks and using those money pay for rent for those who are foreclosed
     
    #16     Oct 29, 2007
  7. gnome

    gnome

    Disagree. We can have higher inflation so that GPD [measured by inflated prices] is reported as "positive".

    What we would ACTUALLY have is Stagflation.... unit output of goods and services being flat while prices rise. This is the Fed and Gummint's preferred option, IMO.

    They won't allow it to be labeled "recession", and they won't call it "stagflaton" either.... it will be called "growth".

    If [BIG FARGIN "IF"] we get recession anyway, it will be over Bernanke's money-pumping, $USD-destroying dead body.
     
    #17     Oct 29, 2007
  8. People tend to forget that currency valuations are a two way street. All it takes is for the ECB to lean neutral and the dollar catches a bid. Given that neither the Treasury nor the Fed has made an iota of an attempt to intervene on the dollar's behalf tells me policy favors an even more competitive greenback.

    I suppose if half the people think there's inflation risk and the other half think there's recession risk then it means policy is on the right track......
     
    #18     Oct 29, 2007
  9. kashirin

    kashirin


    gnome, we probably now already have stagflation

    with real inlation around 5-10% and GDP growth 4-5% not price adjusted - I don't know other word to call it

    Although to deflate housing bubble through inflation we will need 50-100% compounded inflation within 2-3 years


    I'm not sure even such inflationist as Bernanke would allow 20-30% YoY inflation
     
    #19     Oct 29, 2007
  10. I remember some pundit or other appearing on NBR predicting $800.00 gold because everybody who issues a currency would be "racing to the bottom" to remain competitive; his timing was about 15 years off but his scenario looks credible now (with inflation: $1500.00 gold).

    Rising commodities will limit the ability of exporters to cut prices to offset currency disadvantages.
    ...

    Inflation/recession isn't an either/or of course.
     
    #20     Oct 29, 2007