Bubble? WHAT Bubble?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bungrider, Jun 11, 2003.

  1. I know it's not just me, but it seems like we're back in 1998. Practically overnight, everybody's asses have stopped bleeding from the past 3 years and they're all fucking geniuses again.

    I see FREE TIPS on yahoo finance from the geniuses at Motley Fool and SmartMoney, telling me how I can become a millionaire in just 1..2..3 easy steps.

    Motley Fool? I thought they went belly under...I guess all the guy had to do to restart is push the start button on his old compaq and place a bunch of new banners from online brokers on his web page...

    And also all over yahoo finance is helpful tips from Investor's Business Daily. "Yeah, they track momentum" the guy on the street tells me. "Well, what do you mean by momentum?" I ask. He doesn't know how to explain momentum. Apparently, neither does IBD. But we must have plenty of it!!!

    Our economy is a piece of shit. Our markets astoundingly overvalued. Our treasury secretary doesn't seem to know whether or not he wants a strong dollar.

    And then there's the debt.

    ...and forgive me if I'm missing a few simple points, as I have been spending less and less time trading lately.
     
  2. Don't know either, completely flabbergasted (and battered).

    The Emperor has no Clothes and nobody cares!!
     
  3. taodr

    taodr

    Bung , Siebel shareholders have just voted NO to holding performance to pay so watch these shareholders really get fucked now.
     
  4. the next downleg seems to be just around the corner.

    downmarkets are funnier to trade anyway.
     
  5. Suck 'em in, blow 'em out.

    Appreciate the beauty of Greenspan mainlining liquidity and the possibility that the front-loading of the tax cut for the following year could drive the market up even further. It's going to be a good up and a GREAT down.
     
  6. TGregg

    TGregg

    Yeah but (everybody say it together) it's different this time.

    :D :D :D

    Actually, it does seem that the Fed can inflate the money supply all it wants, with no regard to inflation. Or, that CPI thing anyways. I'm sure the government knows what it is doing, though. :p M1 (the narrowest measure of money) is up over 5% from April '02 to April '03, while M3 (the widest) is up over 6.5%.

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/
     
  7. I'm thankful for these levels. My greatest fear is that the market gets to the point where nobody gives a shit, and it almost did. Fortunately, even during its bear market, the Nikkei has had great volatility the past fifteen years. As long as we can trade it...

    PTR
     
  8. TGregg

    TGregg

    Here's a chart of non-fudged (nonseasonal) M1, M2 and M3 since January of `59 to April `03.
     
  9. But the downleg only comes after they blooded the majority of bears : that's the way they usually do it and my model integrates that somehow although not directly but as a consequence it is the same kind of result :D.

     
  10. That's really great, Harry. I was, in fact, wondering how your model incorporates that. It was like you read my mind. In fact, anytime I make a trade or even look at a chart, I think to myself, "hmm, I wonder how Harry's model would view this? I'm sure there has to be a more cryptic, counterintuitive, difficult way to see this simple chart or trade, and I'm sure Harry's model describes such a way."
     
    #10     Jun 11, 2003