Bubble ben bernanke cant solve the jobs puzzle!!!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by S2007S, Mar 28, 2010.

  1. S2007S


    So here we are less than a week away from another "important" jobs report that seems this time around is going to be extremely volatile with predictions going upwards of 400,000+. So bubble ben bernanke wants to know why the US economy is growing so "RAPIDLY" yet not creating any jobs????????????

    I don't think that is a hard question to answer, its pretty simple, when you can push rates to zero percent, print any amount of worthless monopoly dollars you please, pump the economy with stimulus, the markets with liquidity and prop up everything from the markets to the economy it actually looks like the US is growing "RAPIDLY" meanwhile its all an illusion. I would go so far to call this a jobless propping of the economy, I wouldn't call it a jobless recovery due to the strong intervention within the market and economy. The economy has lost millions of jobs since the recession began and hasn't added any since. However, according to GDP and other economic figures it shows the economy growing at a pretty good rate yet jobs have yet to recover.

    The Jobs Puzzle Bernanke Can't Solve
    Reuters | March 28, 2010 | 06:18 PM EDT

    It's a mystery that has puzzled even U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke: if the U.S. economy is growing rapidly, why isn't it creating jobs?

    Friday's hotly anticipated employment report for March may muddle matters even more. Economists polled by Reuters had widely divergent views, with one looking for an increase of400,000 jobs -- which would be the strongest in a decade -- while others thought it may show another small net decline.

    The consensus expects a gain of 190,000 jobs, which would mark only the second month of job growth since the recession started in December 2007, and the largest increase since March of that year.

    Government jobs are expected to account for the bulk of the growth, thanks to the once-a-decade Census, which requires taking on hundreds of thousands of temporary workers. While the jobs pay well ($22.00 an hour in San Francisco; $11.75 in Ames, Iowa,) they last only a few months.

    Bernanke and his central bank colleagues are well aware that Census hiring will skew readings, and have cautioned that unemployment will likely remain near 10 percent all year.

    The Fed and private economists are trying to answer the bigger question of why the labor market shed 8.4 million jobs during this recession. Although the downturn was the deepest since the Great Depression, the job losses were even more severe than most forecasters had predicted based on models that compare economic growth and employment.

    Bernanke offered two possible explanations.

    "One is that maybe the recession was deeper than we thought," he said in response to a question from a member of Congress last week. "The other is that the productivity gains were greater than we thought they would be when firms were able to cut their work forces and still maintain output."

    Cause for Optimism

    The first theory gained support when one of Bernanke's staff economists wrote a research paper suggesting that the most commonly used measure of U.S. economic growth, gross domestic product, had understated the depth of the recession and overstated the recent recovery.

    The economist, Jermemy Nalewaik, argued that a lesser known measure called gross domestic income may give a more accurate assessment of the business cycle. GDP looks at spending to measure the size of the economy, while GDI focuses on income.

    Based on GDI, the economy began contracting in 2007, not 2008 as GDP data indicates. It also shows growth did not resume until the final quarter of 2009, while GDP showed the economy had expanded in the third quarter as well.

    If GDI is indeed a more accurate gauge, there is reason to think employment will soon rise. Data released last Friday showed GDI jumped at a 6.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, even faster than GDP's 5.6 percent pace.

    That would also help explain why payrolls were still contracting eight months after GDP indicated economic growth resumed. Employment gains normally lags economic growth by a few months, so if the cycle turn came in October rather than June, it would make more sense to see job growth now.

    If the U.S. economy does indeed show large job gains for March, it would pull ahead of the euro zone, which is expected to report on Wednesday that the jobless rate ticked up to 10 percent in February from 9.9 percent the prior month.

    The U.S. unemployment rate is at 9.7 percent, and the consensus view is that it will hold there in March. What happens after that is open for debate.

    Some economists think it will inch up again later this year, for a somewhat counter-intuitive reason. As the labor market improves, discouraged workers may decide to start looking for work again. Those who give up the search are not officially counted in the unemployment rate, but when they jump back into the labor pool they are.

    David Rosenberg, chief economist at money manager Gluskin Sheff in Toronto, is more concerned that the economy will weaken just as the Census jobs are disappearing. Government stimulus spending will be fading later this year, and the Fed may be cutting back on its extraordinary economic support.

    "I would be looking for a second-half growth relapse that sees the unemployment rate climb back to a new cycle high once the Census hiring effect subsides," Rosenberg said.
  2. LOL

    why don't they print jobs too?

    at least for the last two decades incomes have been eroding in the US and in the west in general, anyone who can't see this trend continuing and even most likely accelerating is an idiot
  3. canmo


    Here is an official doc up to Feb/2010 - ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt
    Take a look on previous census years - 2000 , 1990, etc. - even you don't have monthly break there, you don't see any spike in employment. So, anybody expecting it now is living in vitual reality :) . However, I would say - based on two bottom lines in that link - that there is some saturation of unemployment (sum of columns 'number of unemployed' + 'not in labor force' isn't growing significantly) and 'number of employed' is even growing since Dec/2009(until we trust these numbers).
    And, I agree, 'job printing' is great idea, even better then money printing.. Just create companies, rent offices, put unemployed folks there, give them salaries(by printed money, no discrimination by race, sex, education, etc.), don't force them to do anything and leave them alone - then it might be much simpler to fund them by gov, it will be like 'industry support' instead of 'unemployment extending' , bipartisan support is garanteed :) . Then 'go public' with those companies(PR them by all possible channnels) and sell shares to foreign investors - to get all the funds back :) .
  4. If true, this is a logical explanation.
  5. that's what all governments do, only that they create more unnecessary bureaucracy in the process, until the system reaches a point where all the subsystems become paralyzed thus dysfunctional
  6. Bernanke... Weasley little cocksuker that he is.. can do NOTHING... There isn't really any "jobs puzzle".... and there is no "jobs solution"..

    The facts are (1) "Globalization" hosed our manufacturing/exporting monopoly, BIG TIME.. and (2) the world is awash in EXCESSIVE LABOR.. including the USA. Ain't nothing anybody can do about it except cope and adjust.

    There is NO SOLUTION COMING FROM THE FEDS, regardless of the "hope and puke" they spew!!
  7. Lethn


    I honestly think he's just desperately trying NOT to admit that what Ron Paul was saying is actually right much lulz.
  8. Of course, Ron Paul is right... how come dumbass American voters can't see that... and vote for something/somebody which has a chance of delivering us from "Leftist, elitist evil"???
  9. jjj1000


    Yep, but bubble Ben will continue to prop the stock market to oblivion, and create bubbles on commodities;then they will come and say:"Look at the markets, how strong they are! We have been recovering!!" haha.
  10. He's not supposed too. The Fed's mandate is Price Stability (e.g. inflation) not job creation.

    #10     Mar 29, 2010