Nobody can even understands that s***. People will use the digital cash that the governments are coming out with and you'll load it up with crypto. Crypto is not going to be used day-to-day anywhere... It's just not practical.... As a store of value, it's amazing. Bitcoin is replacing gold and is basically digital real estate not a currency. If a crypto became a currency it would have to have a no cap and burns otherwise people will just hodl...but with the digital money coming out it defeats the purpose. For large purchases such as cars and real estate you will be able to use Bitcoin if the seller wants it...otherwise you'll just convert it to the US coin/fiat.
Well, I have to admit that I am not enjoying it right now, I was hoping for a lot more, a lot sooner than now. This pause is killing me right now.
Yep, to park your money. What if BTC won't see the 100k mark? Sure,.you can hold your money in BTC, but what if it won't get more by it, and be, just like gold, a ranging asset? You invest your money in a portfolio of stocks, to have it grow. And BTC, most likely, will become just one of those stocks. (Not the portfolio itself). Or, you see a future of BTC with ever growing potential (100k, 200k)... That is a different story then. Surly people would use crypto for payment, if it is cheap.
Just some rough math: Bitcoin is about 120 x more scarce than gold (2.5B ounces/21M) so $2500 x 120 = 300k. About 120M ounces of gold are mined every year so in 10 years that's about another 1B so 3.5B/21M=176x2500=440K 30 years = 726k Factor in only 18M coins =847k Factor in gold appreciates on average 7% per year =2500 x7% per year puts it at about $5250 in 30 years so Bitcoin equivalent price at about 1.7M (6.1B/18M x 5250) Actually gold has x5 in 30 years so that would put bitcoin @ 4.2M
When it comes to gold, so the price had its ups - and downs. It is not guaranteed that it will continue to see a 7% yearly/avg growth. Although you should be surprised if it won't, but the question is truly if demand for gold will always be high (asian population going down again, western the same; less people, less demand). Bitcoin is a great alternative, but it will forever be digital (not like gold, which is a real metal). Bitcoin, not being used for daily transactions, could come to a point where transactions happen only very seldom. As everyone is hodling. What would that mean for price? I ask myself, if price ever drops, and many people start to sell, what bottom will we see? What was the max drawdown gold ever had?? Difference is, people know what gold is. And it would (actually) never go -40/50%. Can you say the same about Bitcoin, especially since there are (indeed) alternatives to it? What if another pow chain with lower tx cost gets more attention to the masses? All unforeseeable things. BTC is yet, highly speculative. Unlike gold (!) And the day, Bitcoin won't be highly speculative (if this ever happens), it will face the same faith gold has: Becoming a boring, more ranging than growing asset .... Numbers you said are great, but in between lays a huge amount of capitalization-growth and speculation.
That's a detriment of gold. You can buy-->trade-->move-->sell bitcoin in the middle of the night, while waiting for the bank to open to call and set up an appointment for gold. Also, Bitcoin and gold were the same price back in 2017 so you can't really compare them as a store of value.
My only point is: People still prefer to make (realize) their profit more in $$$, than BTC (or whatever crypto currency). As long as that is the case, spikes to the upside will be sold again. Only, once a crypto chain can and will be used in daily tx, up potential is unlimited. In BTC case it is limited, as I can live better with 1 Mio $ on the bank, than with the same amount in BTC. I can transfer the money at any time and make payments, who seriously accepts BTC in the middle of the night or on a lonely island?! BTC as speculative asset is great; as a store of value, it is just boring and like one of those conservative stocks, that you hold in your portfolio just in case... (but being that, upside potential is low, not high, as you have to factor in that much money will go into altcoins, not into btc). Just my thoughts. Altcoins are way better to speculate on, as they grow much more than BTC in a bullrun. Yep, BTC will most likely become that 'conservative, boring stock', that people hold during the bearish cycle, but not the bullish one.
Do they? You can just sell your BTC you know...takes only a few minutes on an exchange. Who accepts gold???? lol. As mentioned you can turn crypto into cash on an exchange with a click of a mouse, and then you can electronically send it to your bank account within 15 minutes using the e-transfer method. Yeah at what price? A billion per coin? It certainly isn't boring when you consider we were at 3k just 1 olympics ago.
1) BTC is clearly ONLY for the long term. You won't sell your BTC, to pay something with it. (even if you don't need to change it into $). Simply because of the TX costs! - daily usage, zero. just like gold, which is, as I said, a boring, mostly ranging, conservative asset... right? 2) why isn't gold, a real metal, existing since ever, at $1 billion dollars?? 3) there is still no alternative to gold (silver is not an alternative). But there is plenty of alternatives to BTC. Being a digital asset it can (theoretically) be replaced by another network, not so with gold (!) These are things you have to think about, when you take a huge portion your money, and put it for 20 years into BTC. Highly speculative: It can grow strong, but it can also just range like (scarce) gold did... Why not take this approach: Put only 1/10 of that money into an altcoin. Up potential is higher than with BTC, but you put only 1/10 on the table, as you did with BTC. Putting a huge stake of your money into one asset (BTC) shows, that these people don't understand much about financial investments, risk diversification, but at the same time keeping the up-potential high. That is why I have less than 5% of my money in BTC. Therefore, lookout for better alternatives, which profits I will then again exchange into BTC or $ or something better.
I don't know where you are getting your assumptions from, but gold isn't even in the conversation anymore when it comes to store of value. Why are we even talking fees? It costs $31.97 to move 1 bitcoin. How many are you planning on moving?