I am trying to assess the risk and likelihood of BSC falling out of the 7.50/10/12.50 butterfly. Could anyone let me know the factors behind why BSC deviates from the JPM buyout price of $10/share?
Because it is not $10 It is 0.21753 shares of JPM. So essentially you are putting your butterfly on JPM stock.
Plus, of course, the risk that something may go wrong with the deal or someone may offer a higher price. Those probably aren't likely since BSC is trading close to the buyout price, but you never know. Also, that's a mighty wide butterfly on JPM - it'd have to go up or down 11 bucks or so to get past the wings.