I would need to state here that bearishness by industry professional and commercials, is not good for a bull market. Bearishness by small specs and the public is good for a bull market, but they are not bearish, they are bullish. One other point here- Commodities are rarely if ever part of a bull market. They can be part of a shorter term retracement which is what we are in, but not a bull market, which we are not in.
fake bull my ass. screw the dow and nas - the only one that matters is the s&p 500. it will sneak up and mow you down....if we get 2 double-digit gains in a row on the s&p500, hunting season will be open.
the fact that 1) commodities are ramping (especially oil and gold) and stocks are NOT showing weakness is bullish. compare to this summer, when everytime QM went up $2, ES went down 2 points 2) gold is no longer (primarily) an inflation play. it's a commodity play, on an international basis. there didn't use to be (also) stock players playing gold (and commod's) in the equities market like there is now with ETF's, etc. that's a new dynamic. as is the foreign ETF's. 3) i watch the COT's and i agree about bullishness vs. bearishness in the various players. that is concerning 4) the public is not particularly bullish and also importantly the permabears just keep shrugging of EVERY move. that is very heartening 5) the only bull market that people compare to is the 90's, which makes people more hesitant to accept this one , which is wrong imo - trans, er2 smacking all time highs, and people are doubting the bull market?
I have a major contention with this portion of the statement. The market most certainly is showing signs of weakness. Also, the public is particularly bullish. I am glad to see that you do have some concerns over commitment of traders. This will serve you well. Could be that it will serve you better than any other indicator. Will the market sell off for good tomorrow or at 1400? No one knows, but the signs of weakness are rearing their head.
I read things like, the public is bullish, commercials are bearish. Where does this information come from? Is it reliable? How do we measure public's bullishness? Thanks
It comes from the commitments of traders report every week. I contend that the small speculator is the public.
look, the market COULD sell off at any time for any reason. that much is a given all it takes is a significant spark, response to news, whatever. that's always been the case. always will be we have a different take, and that's ok that's what makes a market and a bull market is nigh impossible without lots of bears and we know we got those