Lobster...good posts.... True...True....Let everybody print...occasionally equilibrate...and take the plays when extreme..abnormal..out of sinc... For currencies...an interesting play is to take the 30 day paper along with the yields...hoping one day the county's currency will exceed the current and lessor risk currencies' position...unlike companies the governments will be around...with their printing presses...usually less expensive daily living as well... There have been some good IMF/Latin plays...usually 2 to 5 year plays...Indonesia...another one... The point is...that when the US faces extremes..it might represent some good opportunities... I like playing extremes...a lack of movement is harder for me... The point is the US is just another possible play...if and when...
Lobster...here's an easy view of what I mean... US Currency plus Tbill rate=benchmark Years est US 2001..2004 .. 1.06x1.03x1.01x1.01 = 1.113x est Latin 2001..2004 .. (15x1.25x1.21x1.28x1.5)30 = 1.452x The Central Bank's role is to make adjustments with (i)interest...historical extremes usually do not last very long...6 to 12 months..thereby eventually equilibrating and surpassing the comparative... The point is the currency's value is impacted by the (i) along with dilution... It is the relatively short term instabilities that create the best opportunities... To me...stability means lack of opportunity.... And of course it doesn't have to be currency...it can be apartments..or anything viewed in this way... ie...1.05x1.11x1.4x.7=1.142x is another way of saying that the apartment in Brooklyn went up 5%..11%..40%..-30%...but still made money if started at 1.05... All in all...just another play...There are all sorts of ways to short the +40...buy the -30.....etc...a constant could be the Brooklyn population...etc..etc... Hey...after all...its sabado...
Exerpt from tarpley's book (didn't even read yet) http://www.tarpley.net/29crash.htm THE BRITISH RECORD OF STARTING WALL STREET PANICS The British had a long track record of using the London Bank Rate (that is, the rediscount rate of the Bank of England) for financial and economic warfare against the United States. The periodic panics of the nineteenth century were more often than not caused by deliberate British sabotage. A few examples: * In the Panic of 1837, the stage had been set for depression by outgoing President Andrew Jackson's and Secretary of the Treasury Roger Taney's abolition of the Second Bank of the United States, by their cultivation of the state "pet" banks, by their imbecilic Specie Circular of 1836, which demanded gold payment to the federal government for the purchase of public lands, and by their improvident distribution of the Treasury surplus to the states. London's ultinmate weapon turned out to be the Bank of England bank rate. With all the American defenses sabotaged, the Bank of England sharply raised its discount rates, sucking gold specie and hot money liquidity back across the Atlantic, while British merchants and trading houses cut off their lines of credit to their American customers. In the resulting chaos, not just private banks and businesses went bankrupt, but also the states of Mississippi, Louisiana, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Michigan, which repudiated their debts, permanently impairing US credit in the world. Internal improvements came to a halt, and the drift towards secession and civil war became more pronounced. * The Panic of 1873 resuted from a British-directed effort to ruin the banking house of Jay Cooke and Company, which had served Lincoln and his successors as a quasi-governmental agency for the marketing of United States Treasury securities and railroad bonds during and after the Civil War. The Cooke insolvency had been preceded by a massive dumping of US staocks and bonds in London and the rest of Europe. This was London's way of shutting down the Civil War boom that Lincoln's dirigist and protectionist policies had made possible. Instead, a long US depression followed. * The Panic of 1893 was prepared by the 1890 "Baring panic" in London, caused by the insolvency of Barings Bank, the same one which went bankrupt and was sold off in the spring of 1995. In the resulting depression, the US Treasury surplus was reduced to almost nothing, and a budget defecit loomed. Using this situation as a pretext, British speculators drove the exchange rate of the dollar down to the point where owners of gold began exporting their gold to London. Treasury gold stocks dipped below $100,000,000, and then kept falling to $68,000,000; US national bankruptcy threatened. In response to this crisis, subversive President Grover Cleveland gave control of the US public debt to the New York banking houses of Morgan and Belmont, themselves British agents of influence. Cleveland "sold out to Wall Street" by selling US gold bonds to Morgan and Belmont at reduced prices, with the taxpayers picking up the tab; Morgan and Belmont promised to "use their influence" in London to prevent further British bear raids against the US dollar and gold stocks. All of this caused another long depression.
I think we might be headed for stagflation. Periods of high unemployment and high inflation. Its the worst case scenerio for the middle class. Although I think it will show up once the whole party effect is over... after the tax cuts and after rates get notched up a few levels. --MIKE
I see this line as the statement of a jackass libereal! What war for oil? If our Middle Eastern presence was about oil, don't you think we would of has power of it by 1991? War for Oil, Jesus Christ I am so sick of hearing that bullshit line
Trend Fader Elite Member Registered: Jul 2002 Posts: 1145 04-18-04 09:44 AM I think we might be headed for stagflation. Periods of high unemployment and high inflation. Its the worst case scenerio for the middle class. Although I think it will show up once the whole party effect is over... after the tax cuts and after rates get notched up a few levels. --MIKE ................................................................................................ Interesting point....Stagflation is exactly what is happening in some Latin American countries right now....very cruel...no jobs and higher prices... Also very dangerous...the rich get richer..the poor get poorer...not a good situation.... And for those that do have money...this is when the Central Bank sets artificially high rates to check inflation..more money makes more money...if they don't employ this IMF protocol...it can get even uglier... All in all..this upheavel is the abnormal part of the curve...which is the type of opportunity that does not occur very frequently...the whole populations wants better exchange rates and lower interest rates...the odds are high that this happens...and rewards the early players....