Britain might see 6 Million H1N1 cases

Discussion in 'Economics' started by IanMacQuaide, Jul 2, 2009.

  1. :eek:
    ""Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August," Health Minister Andy Burnham told the House of Commons on Thursday.

    Britain has been reporting several hundred new swine flu cases daily for the last several weeks. If that surges to 100,000 cases a day by the end of August, there could be 6 million people infected by the fall, or 10 percent of Britain's 60 million population."

    Go short Britannia?

    Here's the link. I hope these projections are wrong.
  2. GTS


    How can both of these statements from the article be true?
  3. lrm21


    Hows that universal healthcare working for ya?
  4. squeeze


    I have been modelling this as infection data has been released and the announced figures are consistent with the figures from my model. Daily growth rate of infections is currently 11.2% in the UK. At this rate of growth the entire UK population will be infected by the end of September. However, infections rates moderate as the number of infection becomes significant in the population. Second wave of infection likely in the spring.

    It's difficult to gauge the growth rate in many countries as the case reporting is not that accurate.
    Rates of growth in the UK are high due to high population density but the virus is spreading fast globally with exponentially increasing infections.

    Expected negative impact on GDP for a mild flu pandemic is 1-2%. In the event that the virus mutates to become significantly pathogenic then the impact will be more like 4-5%.
  5. just21


    1-2% negative gdp growth for the flu, -5% so far plus 10% cut of government expenditure after the election, which is half of gdp. gives us about -12% for the Uk putting us in depression
  6. squeeze


    The worst things always happen at the worst time.
  7. Check out southern hemisphere a lot of infected folks......once swings back up here in fall look out.
  8. Many times which were PLANNED by the worst people!

    Better wake up to your realities....and FAST! FORCED flu vaccination legislation is steaming ahead in NUMEROUS areas! The amount of government agencies that are preparing for FORCED vaccinations (where is your friendly mainstream media on this story???) should SHOCK THE HELL out of you.....that is if you even knew about it!

    SWINE FLU reference list of links..........