This is a good post. An US surgical strike with cruise missles and bombers is a certainty. We are nearing the end of a 6 month buildup... And military sites on the net are saying the US Navy will be ready for a strike by April 6th. The idea is to set back Iran's nuclear program for several years... And take out Iran's navy and any asset they have that can threaten Persian Gulf shipping. The price of oil will collapse... Once the US Navy is policing the Persian Gulf... And the Iranian economy will collapse when their trade is cut off. The US military is not well suited for controlling a civil war in Iraq... But it is PERFECTLY SUITED for destroying Iranian assets from the air.
You have probably summed up White House thinking and reasoning as well as anyone can.............. congratulations.
Actually on the news they said Britain's Navy has less personnel than the U.S. Coast Guard. It is a pathetic Navy now.
First off anyone with a semblance of knowledge on military affairs knows Britain can take care of itself. I'm not buying into the suddenly toothless tiger scenario one bit. They happen to excel in top secret dirty trick stuff which is well suited to a prisoner situation. This fog of war excuse is BS. One of two things happened either the Iranians approached disguised as fishing boat or cargo ships and suddenly attacked or they came in real obvious pretending to search documents and then coerced the soldiers into a speeding boat to Iranian waters. By that point any commander worth his rank would have placed his cruiser with it's multi million dollar defense system and pinpoint targeting ability right on top of them. This We're afraid to go into Iranian waters is BS. I'm sure one way or another we are in there every day. The point is in the open sea a boat has captured your friends and is taking them top a place where they will be humiliated, possible tortured and maybe killed. Are you going to depend on " proper " channels all the way to their graves? I think this was the point the American commander was making in a non so subtle way-- Us uncouth American types we'll just blow your ass out of the water and pay reparations later. it's the better way.
I do have a "semblence" of knowledge when it comes to military affairs because ..I was in the military, and served during IRAQ 1. SoI can tell you quite a bit about how things play out when it comes to ROE in the gulf. First, the British ship in questin is a frigate, not a cruiser. They typically have 5" guns for NGFS, 50 Cal to deal with FPB, and an anti air defense system known as sea whiz, and an ASW platform to attack and prosecute enemy subs, it's principle duty is to find and destroy enemy subs. Top speed, is around 30 knots, maybe slightly slower. This ship is equipped to defend itself against a missle or two, but can't really defend itself against an air attack, and can hold it's own during a surface battle. A FPB can easily out maneuver and out run this vessel. NGFS is not extemely accurate. It's easy to be off by 500 yards, do you expect the commander to blast away at the FPB with this gun and risk killing his own men and women? 50 Cal's could do the job, but then you have to close the distance, and the danger of hitting your own men is very real. So much for pinpoint targeting systems and multimillion dollar defense systems. This ship can hunt subs, and the truth is, they don't even do a good job of finding them. You want to catch subs, you need other subs to do it. You may be right, the Iranians could have disguised themselves as fishing vessels. What I do know, is that given their proximity to Iranian waters, the entire evolution would take only 3 or 4 minutes, hell a cruiser making 5 knots will take 3 minutes to get up to speed and close the distance, by then they are well into Iranian waters. From what I've seen, the cruiser was at least 3 NM away from at the time of the incident, making response time at least 6 minutes at best, and 8 minutes or so more likely. I havn't seen the ROE, or standing orders, but I can guarantee you that the commander of this ship was instructed to avoid Iranian waters. NO admiral is going to allow the possiblity of creating an international crisis and ruining his career in the hands of a commander of a frigate. As for the Fog of War, it's very real. It does happen. In this case, shipping, lots of shipping, small vessels, etc. As for dealing with the situation, I am all for giving them 8 hours to return the crew members, or let the fireworks begin. Iran needs to learn, you mess with the bull....you get the horns!
mschey: your wish is my commend. Check out this article making the rounds: From the Jerusalem Post -The United States will be ready to launch a missile attack on Iran's nuclear facilities as soon as early this month, perhaps "from 4 a.m. until 4 p.m. on April 6," according to reports in the Russian media on Saturday. According to Russian intelligence sources, the reports said, the US has devised a plan to attack several targets in Iran, and an assault could be carried out by launching missiles from fighter jets and warships stationed in the Persian Gulf. Russian news agency RIA Novosti quoted a security official as saying, "Russian intelligence has information that the US Armed Forces stationed in the Persian Gulf have nearly completed preparations for a missile strike against Iranian territory."
15:57 BRITAIN SAYS IT SHARES IRAN'S PREFERENCE FOR EARLY BILATERAL TALKS TO SOLVE SAILOR CRISIS - Reuters