On the institutional sell side(FX), you see a lot of smart money and big ticket flow. Real Money is quite predictable and seasonal. You are able to see and organize flow from HF, real Money, CTA's and model accounts. Market Making, even in big shops where you can take some sizable risk is a different ballgame. The franchise value from some of the flow allows MM traders much more leeway to make mistakes and to soften psychological blows during bad trading periods. Cant count the number of times a client flow took me out of large bad position. I certainly used charts but only for optimal entry/exit, and to predict model and CTA flow. Is this market heavy manipulated? I do not think so. Do some people have an advantage due to superior technology and information?, for sure. But they are subject to the same market forces everyone else is. For sure this retail game is tough. I have learned that you have to play it differently and perhaps have realistic expectations of what you can achieve. Every game has a winning strategy.
9/11 hit,everything fell 50-80 percent and you were down 1 percent?? Hence,you couldnt sleep and went into Day trading??
what do you mean by manipulated....if by that term FII actively buying the market up and selling the market down.....which is illegal....... but what is they do not do anything...is that manipulation? they account for more than 70% of volume..... so if they do not buy...what do you think the market will do....sink on low volume.... is that manipulation?...no one can force anyone to buy....not buying is not illegal......... markets are controlled ....not manipulated
Sadly,I am blessed and cursed with the unique ability to discover mispricings and spread off of it. It's extremely labor intensive,mucho screen time ,a shitload of cancel and replace,not to mention commish apx 25 percent of my P and L,and,being tagged as a pro.. Im not complaining as the year was close to triple digits,but 1/3 of the profits came from putting on verticals and calendars in size for small credits.. The only model is my brain and instincts/experience,so there's nothing to model after the close. Direction via options seems like the natural fit
Welcome, Bomp! Sounds like you have some great experience and are already seeing some results. Where are you doing most of your idea generation?
hi, and thanks. In terms of ideas generation, mostly through my broker platform and some scripts I have programmed in python to sift through the data and price some strategies. The rest is just finding a macro theme that catches my eye. As far as results, too early to tell.
End of Year not much different from the Dec 18 performance report. Put only a few trades that should payoff first week of January. Other than that, spent time building some pricing/analysis tools. 2021 market feels like it will be a difficult market to trade as IV move lower(?) and screaming underperformers are harder to find. Perhaps Oil is the big mover q1 or q2 of 2021. Maybe there are will be headwinds against big tech, just as the 2008 crisis created headwinds against the financial industry. Although the public anger is not there against tech as it was against banks after 2008. There is certainly an anti tech vibe among policy makers. EOY Sharpe Ratio : 1.8119251680608528 Sortino Ratio : 2.183078247442712 Info Ratio : 63.28% Beta : -0.180228402476905 Alpha : 0.859816706177076 R2 : 0.009590985022259857 Portfolio Return Annually Compounded : 78.70% Benchmark Return Annually Compounded : 40.85% Portfolio Benchmark: SPY Risk Free Rate Annual : 0.06% Calendar Days : 156 Observations: 112 As of : Dec 31 2020
Start of the year and looking to continue with my big tech bearish bias. Have some downside strategies on AAPL, FB and QQQ and some downside BIASED strategies in AMZN. AAPL just seems topish to me with a double top at 140ish. FB also seems in correction mode and I feel we could test 260, especially having bounced a couple of times from the 50MA. Here I just have a RR. BTW , wow TESLA, seems like a short's widow maker, need to get involved somehow there given the high IV, but not with outright directional strategies.