This was my logic behind this trades: The first one is pretty simple: RET after clearing the chop. As was discussed in the morning, the entry around 9:3x would have been hard for me, but I have to notice the fact that it was the open (lots of interest) and sellers were rejected at the bottom of the TR, which carries extra information regarding the LOLR. After the strong move, I was looking for reasons to stay in, that is why the close at the break of the line was not so clear for me. Prices had not retraced enough to show sellers intent and I was on the green with nothing to lose but paper profit so why not give it a go. But then buyers gave up just before reaching 61, so that is where SAR came into play, besides we were at 60 as was pointed out on the thread. Things started to get complicated around the 3rd trade (the one in the blue oval), SL was broken, and we were at the 50% level of the upswing from the open so I started feeling biased to the long side. It was here where DB warned about being walking into the chop again, not sure yet how did you manage to spot it in advance, but thanks for pointing it out. The 4th trade was a short, that was rapidly exited as buyers rejected with intent. I was not ready for taking the long side, and there was not RET, besides by this time my reading was chop, and only after exiting this newly formed chop I would be interested in new trades. The 5th trade was a long that lasted too little, buyers were advancing in a much slower pace, . Damn, I was trying to enter the chop again, I just lost focus by this time, perhaps if I am not having a good day, I should just stop trading before hurting my account. I have noticed that my focus lasts depending on my success in reading the market during the first 60 minutes. The 7th trade was the one I pointed out as being in doubt, judging from the way price was moving (slowly) upwards. Besides i was at 65 which was important as it was the swing high of the hourly move from yesterday. After buyers were rejected at 66 and DL was broken, the short (8th) trade was again a plunge into the chop. Lessons learned: Some times I can spot the chop for free (no losing trades), try to take advantage of this. The method would have yielded a small profit for those exiting just after the break of the line even with all the crappy entries for those who can´t escape the chop.
It wasn't so much spotting it in advance but seeing what price was doing at the time. The demand line had been broken, which means look for shorts. There was one at your 2. Then the supply line was broken, which means look for longs. There weren't any until your 4, but that was a lower low. In the meantime, bars were so overlapped that they were almost aligned. As for the 4, yes it was a bounce off the 50% level, but that's for the sophomore class. Here we're interested only in developing a sensitivity to the demand/supply imbalances and controlling losses. Therefore no long until your 5. And if there's any disappointment over not making enough, look at the trades in other threads that resulted in substantial losses.
This is absolutely true. My problem today was that I held some of the trades for too long. I took number 7 and 8 niko marked. Number 7 I realized in the trade, that price had a hard time reaching the last high (after it failed to reach the channel top before). So this was minor loss for me after it came down. Number 8 was the perfect example of missjudgement after entering without a real retracement. Even after that substantial failure at 66 I was shy of being shaken out and exited within the stall at 60 without a real reason because the last high after the supply line was taken out horizontally. So in short, I still have a few problems with the trade management after the lines are broken. At the end it seems that it is important how they get broken - all within the context of course... If this is mastered then the doors might open up a bit more. In the meantime substantial losses can be avoided, which is great...
good evening sons and brides. Took this play off the 5 minutes chart this evening. watched myself get stopped out before I took a nap, woke up to find it 7 points lower.
I don't think that it is really recommended to trade timeframes this low and then take a nap. If you read DBs threads he elaborates a lot on staying active and don't just let the stop be hit. At the end, your trade is just a small loser with the break of the supply line or said in another way, price did not find enough sellers to push further down, or sellers running out of power etc. And there might also be a reason why many people here stop trading before lunch.