The tone of the above and you wonder why there's all this spite thrown towards the "elite" ? You equate "information"-holding (I'm going to presume some kind of assumed intellect or knowledge) with worth which is just despicable. How many of those high information holding City traders are out there doing real physical labor and/or blue collar jobs to keep the country running?
No bad thing that the REST gave the finger to the political elite. The EU will probably slowly fall apart thanks to their stupid systems. I mean whoever heard of a Brussels Govt. complex and support staff duplicated at great expense in Strasburg ! Over the 40 years as members we have endured over 60,000 directives from the EU Govt which has little power except for bureaucratic red tape. The power lies with the overpaid Commissioners who do what their Heads of State tell them. So they don't want change and the sack. One big badly thought out waste of money. They should have put together a body to look into streamlining their systems.
Here is what is likely to become the dominant economic narrative of this. These two guys explain: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2016/06/brexit-biggest-global-monetary-shock.html http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2016/06/brexit_is_not_a.html In a nutshell, they think it's created a problem of changing monetary dynamics and it's biggest targets are not Britain, but the EU itself, especially how it impacts the southern EU and in turn the EU in general, and also the dollar block countries in the emerging markets that will be hurt by a rising dollar. And everywhere you look, they keep asking whether central bankers ' will be up to the task'. Iow, they think recessions are not allowed, mkts should not be allowed to clear, and to think otherwise is not responsible. You know, if mkts were allowed to function, there would be no need for these economists. Because their stock in trade seems to be nothing more than attempting to keep mkts from functioning and clearing. Dominant narrative is that Britain is irresponsible because they've revealed to the world that the EU itself is broken and eem countries are over indebted in dollar debt. Britain should have knuckled under to EU elites for the good of the world.
It's tough... Only one thing you can be sure of and that's uncertainty. There are so many questions now, it's rather scary. How it all finally pans out is anyone's guess. Fingers crossed.
Marty....can I offer a theory? Nothing is going to happen. What I mean by that is, people always imagine the extremes. In reality, markets normalize. A new equilibrium is found. And the world keeps on spinning. A great example of this was the 2011 US debt downgrade. It was suppose to signal the end of the world as we knew it. Bonds were suppose to get killed, nobody would EVER EVER lend money to the US anymore. And the gov't shutdown was going to shut down our roads and schools and airports and every man and woman would have to fend for themselves. None of that happened. In fact, the gov't shutdown was not even noticeable. And the debt downgrade....the world bought our debt....not sold it. Outside of a small correction in the equity markets that quickly returned to equilibrium, that remarkable event in history will not even be noticeable on a chart without a powerful magnifying glass. I really do think the Brexit will be much ado about nothing. The markets will adjust. The UK will have no problems making trade deals with the US and with the EU. Why? Because money always wins. Money can accomplish things that a bureaucracy can only dream about. I think 25 years from now, the Brexit will also be indistinguishable on a chart. Oh, you'll see the blips on the currency charts. But will it dramatically change how people live their daily lives? Will it make people unhealthy? Will it cause cancer? Will it reduce domestic violence? Will it destroy the school systems? Will it destroy the healthcare systems? The real problems in our lives are self administered. The UK will only be destroyed from within just as will the US. It will not be destroyed because the pound sold off or because some trade deal needs to be re-negotiated. Just one man's opinion. Discount it accordingly....
Well, I do agree with you, to an extent... Sometimes the mkt is a drama queen and nothing much ends up happening. However, every now and then you get a Lehman. Obviously, not such an incredibly big deal either, in the really grand scheme of things. But then, in the grand scheme of things, we're all dead, anyway.
Don't be shy. I'm curious....do you really think life is going to dramatically change in Brittan? We already have the celebrities throwing in the towel and saying "that's it, I can't take it anymore, I'm outta here". J. K Rowling. Many are crying saying their lives are "changed forever". Even here in the US people are crying, nonstop. Of course I would love for these people to spend a week in Venezuela and then get back to me how tough it is to live in their mcmansions here with 4 cars in the driveway and mexicans cutting the grass for $5 a day and no bathroom breaks. But the horror, the trade deals, the trade deals!!!!!!! As I like to say Marty, I'm just buying time here waiting for the aliens to come back to earth to get me and take me home because obviously, I just don't understand people that well.
Well, I would probably agree that, at least in my central scenario, life shouldn't change dramatically and England won't become Venezuela. However, with uncertainty comes a possibility of a somewhat painful sh1tshow. For instance, I can imagine that the EU now does what it has always wanted, but previously couldn't have. Specifically, move all the financial services that have anything to do with EUR from London to Frankfurt or Paris. You can imagine the impact this would have on London and the rest of England. Obviously, on top of that is the near certainty that the UK finally does break up. Scotland and NI are not likely to stay with England and Wales, the way things are. And then if one starts to think about the possibility of some in NI seeking to rejoin the Republic, maybe we get a taste of the Troubles again, God forbid. The problem is that even separation is hard after a 40+ year marriage, let alone divorce. All sorts of things can happen, y'know? Husband slaps wife around, restraining orders flying, etc etc
Regarding financial services...remember when good ole London said that they were going to stick it to the City and raise taxes to some absurd number and everyone said, there goes the financial center....everyone will pack the kids and the dog and move to Switzerland and Singapore.....well dat neva happened. It turns out oddly enough people who planted their roots in London were not interested in moving. Some might go to Paris or Frankfurt but there is a benefit for them to keep the talent there in London just as there is a benefit to keeping our financial centers in NY even though it's completely outrageous to live there all things considered.
Older voters, who clearly hold more "information" as a group (on average) due to their many years experience, must have been voting about something other than immigration since this demographic was overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit. Maybe a fairer system would be weight each vote according to age, 70 years carrying 70 votes, and 20 years carrying 20 votes? Or do you have a better proposal whereby you personally decide the number of votes based on your assessment of an individual's information? What a great idea for democracy...