Brexit odds at bookies vs polls vs trade

Discussion in 'Trading' started by JackRab, Jun 16, 2016.

Move in FTSE after a Brexit-vote or Remain-vote (vote on both possibilities)

  1. Brexit : up to 3%

    19.0%
  2. Brexit : 3>5 %

    14.3%
  3. Brexit : more than 5%

    14.3%
  4. Remain : 3>5 %

    19.0%
  5. Remain : up to 5%

    23.8%
  6. Remain : more than 5%

    23.8%
  7. Remain : up to 3 %

    14.3%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. total idiots- the vote cannot be rigged-this is not Florida-we let black people vote in the UK
     
    #21     Jun 18, 2016
    endicottsteel likes this.
  2. Xela

    Xela


    Obviously not, without the Electoral Commission and the entire UK media being in on a massive conspiracy. The vote-counting methods are entirely transparent. People whose belief-patterns predicate that they seriously imagine it can be "rigged" probably belong here: http://www.theflatearthsociety.org
     
    #22     Jun 18, 2016
  3. achilles28

    achilles28

    ^What are you long? I need something to short ;)
     
    #23     Jun 18, 2016
  4. jem

    jem

    Last edited: Jun 18, 2016
    #24     Jun 18, 2016
  5. JackRab

    JackRab

    What do you mean? I can't short 100k worth of FTSE or bet 7.5k on a bet that has already matched 55mln through Betfair alone?

    http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/b...=en&region=AUS_NZL&brand=betfair&currency=USD

    You can easily trade 10x that...

    Obviously not on the 50:50 bet, since that price isn't there... but I'm using that as an example of a hedging possibility.

    I'm just putting a thesis out there arguing the bet is skewed because of developments on financial markets based on the outcome...
     
    #25     Jun 19, 2016
  6. Of course they won't leave, 100% they stay.
     
    #26     Jun 20, 2016
  7. You wanna show me a mkt then?
     
    #27     Jun 20, 2016
    JackRab likes this.
  8. Amalgam

    Amalgam

    Why would Brits leave? Enjoy your irrelevancy forever.
     
    #28     Jun 20, 2016
  9. JackRab

    JackRab

    I'm 65@85 for the referendum outcome, higher for actual staying or not... since my guess is if outcome is 52% for brexit, they'll still stay with limited political damage (it's still a referendum and not binding)
     
    #29     Jun 20, 2016
  10. Nice and tight mkt here, eh :)?
     
    #30     Jun 21, 2016