I am not actually in the market right now. Between school and not having a bankroll its just not possible. Baller (Arya cough cough) please do not ruin this thread I put a lot of time into my journal i do not want you wrecking it.
I feel like an idiot for not saying in the above post for not getting the resistance right in my post but getting it right on the chart. So the high this morning was 12492 8 points off my zone. I dont know how much closer I can really get in reality it really looks like the zone is +/- 10 points typically. Today is a good note of why this is a descretionary method, this morning the market blew right past 12460 which i noted was the key zone. When the market has that type of momentum you must yield to the trend. When the trend stalls at the key zone is when you must initiate a position. I am looking for a low of roughly 12340 this point has been pretty crucial over the past couple days. Be careful if you try to catch the bottom on this one as always. Edit: literally as i was writing this post the market swung, low 12315 pretty far off. Unfortunately these zones are not going to be right 100% of the time.
Hope everyone had a great weekend. So monday look for these key zones in the YM. Look for the up trend to continue. I expect some resistance at 12460, 12480, and 12500. I largely expect the market to run up to 12600 over the next few days. To be honest im not quite sure where to really expect the resistance so im noting all three of those zones. The reason it is difficult is because the bulls have the momentum right now. Look for support at 12340 and some minor support at 12420. The market has been in a trading range over the past couple days and right now the bulls have the advantage. If the bears do reply and send the market down to 12340 I am not sure if the bulls are going to be able to hold the bears off for a 4th time. For right now things are a trading range and i largely expect them to stay that way. Use breakout strategy indicators when the market is at the extremes of this range. Again the biggest problem is interpreting when there is a change in trend. Its very difficult to explain the nuances of price action within a post. Happy trading.
Hey guys hope everyone had a good session today. For tuesday I am looking for the YM to head higher. Late in the session monday the bears were denied 12440 which could be an indication that the market is heading higher. Tuesday key zones Support - 12400, 12440 Resistance - 12480, 12540 Today I began to examine the length that the market can stay at these zones perhaps to confirm a breakout or signal a reversal. Preliminary research indicates that if the market may hover at a particular zone for around 30 minutes before it makes a move. I am going to be watching this over the next few weeks. A time stop is a useful element in trading that is rarely used. That is exit a position if it does not show you X amount profit after Y amount of time. I am continuing to try to figure out exactly how much wiggle room to place your stop. The reason this gets tricky is because you must account for a small expansion of the zone. Right now it would appear that the absolute worst case you should ever have on a trade is a 20 point loss, or $100 per contract. This is an absolute worst case scenario for a day trade. Realistically speaking i believe the amount lays closer to 5-15 points. For a breakeven strategy that would mean you would need to get 5-15 point moves when a win/loss ratio is 50/50. Typically I am looking to make atleast 3X what I am willing to risk on a trade with hopes that my entry is atleast 50% accurate. This translates into looking for anything from a 15-45 point move. I am going to begin researching the magnitudes of intraday market moves to further optimize this process. I would like to note that I am not a fan of curve fitting a system to the results that worked the single best in the past. Rather I use optimization a rough indicator with room for expansion. Statistical methods can be used to conduct a mean confidence interval for a given amount of alpha (Wow i remember something from my business stat class awesome). I am a little dissappointed that this journal is not getting very many responces that could be because im not actually trading my method. Please allow me the time to research my method. I feel there is some worth in describing my research process as its often neglected in explaining a thorough research method. If anyone trades a similar method please I would love your comments. And as always happy trading!
As of 12:18 PM on Tuesday the market appears to be near my key resistance zone, however the market has momentum, and it appears to be treating this former resistance almost as a base for the day. This is a circumstance where selling is not advantageous. This is exactly the situation what i was talking about, when the market reverses it tends to want to only stay at this area for roughly no longer than a half hour. Lunch time, will follow up later.
12560 is now a key support zone within this breakout. Notice how this morning the bulls denied the bears attempt to push the market lower on several counts. 12560 will remain key for the rest of the day. 12540 will now act as support also.
Sorry I didnt get a chance yesterday to post the key zones for today. Market appears to be consolidating after the nice bullish move on tuesday. The market appears to be in good shape and may be poised to run as there is not resistance that close. Key zones Support - 12560 12500 12400 Resistance - 12600 12700 While 12600 does appear to be resistance the bears are not sending the market lower from this point very far. In fact the market is in a very tight range from 12560 to 12600. The fact that 12600 was a strategic spot in the bigger picture for the bears to reply and send the market lower their weakness shows the bulls have the advantage. Because the current picture says we are heading higher and the weakness of the bears in their attempts to send the market lower I have a bullish bias. I largely expect the next major resistance will come at the 12670 to 12740 range. I am being conservative and calling it 12700 in general but expect the resistance somewhere in that area. As always, Happy trading.