believe it or not, it makes perfect sense, why? because every trader goes thru exactly the same thing. You need to find your style, your setup or make your mentor's became yours. And if you have done your homework and if it appears to you that 2,3 contracts setup is less risk than than 1 contract setup then go for it, never be locked in by CW, think outside the box.
i got a PM from someone here and it made some sense. I think I really need to get my system out of my head and onto paper. I have the rough blueprints and system plan down but i havent updated it in a long time and i certainly dont reference it. Truth is i have been trading very much like a fly by the seat of the pants type situation. Will spend a lot of time this weekend working on getting things written down. I will post the entire system on here when I am finished.
all in all out is not best for beginners...pay yourself with concrete point target exits....in 3's........nq is best to begin..smooth which gives better stops, which gives lower dollar amount risk...consistently....es too rich and controlled.....ym too wild......nq just right .....imho
risk management is all in stops..u make more money with contracts not pts.....for emotional control and settling down with a system that u can build confidence .
Where's that picture from? What firm? What website? I like the LCD TV displays on top. It looks like California or the west coast since it's dark outside.
In my opinion Brent, you've diagnosed the problem right there. You've learned that just winging is not going to work. Get a plan in place and then test it BEFORE placing ANY real money on the line. I assumed you did this step already as it seems to be step #1 before trading real money.
haha bandit you of all people are commenting on that pic, you have BY FAR the sickest trading setup I have ever seen. I have been on Goldman and Citi's trading floor and your montage blows away anything i saw there.
a Primer on the system that I use. Concept: My system combines support and resistance with trend following with the attempt to catch the meat of a move. There are 3 different plays/trades that I will look to take. Like in football each has its benefits and drawbacks. The plays are the following: REVERSALS, BREAKOUTS, and PULLBACKS. Risk/Reward Ratio: The strategy requires a minimum reward to risk ratio of 2:1 or better. I use my potential upside target divded by my initial stop to calculate this trade. It is important to note that reward to risk ratio is not dynamic and will change as the price action develops. Set ups: My setups are dictated by my designated key zones which are pinpointed at the close of each trading session. I look for important highs, lows, and past history at prices to look for pivotal strategic spots. Properly identifying key zones is my biggest edge, being able to see where there is downside and limited and upside is significantly more. The Reversal The reversal is where this strategy first started to develop. At a core level it appears counter trend, but the idea is spotting the turning point where the opposing side, bulls or bears, will then use as a strategic point to push the market higher or lower. Stop Placement Initial Stop on a reversal should go 5-10 ticks below the key zone for longs and above the key zone for shorts. Entry The precise entry on a reversal appears to be an area I am struggling with. You do not want to catch a falling knife or jump in front of a freight train, at the same time if you wait too late your stop becomes larger which takes away from the reward to risk ratio. I like to use Bollinger bands with the standard settings along with the 20 simple moving average as indicators to supplement my key zones and price action. I pay careful attention to the slope of the moving average, ideally you want enter after it has changed direction, and has at least became flat. More confirmation comes if you wait for it to change from flat to the opposite direction. Simply put they tend to look like a "U" shape at bottom or like a "n" shape at the top. Potential problems The timing is the biggest single problem with reversals like i mentioned you do not want to catch a falling knife or step in front of a freight train. Too late and your stop becomes too big and your reward to risk ratio goes down. Another issue is that sometimes a key zone will expand by a couple ticks usually not more than 10, though this depends mostly on recent market volatility, the more volatile the more you must allow the zone to expand. Because of this I place the stop 5-10 ticks away from the key zone and wait for the trends momentum to slow down. I will continue with stop adjustments, targets, and early exits in my next post.
I took some time to run some statistics on my account, see the attached file. In summary 73 Trades 23 Winners (31.5%) 50 Losers (68.5%) Average Winner $135.22 Average Loser ($ 76.80) Expectancy -.1306 Average Risk $76.80 Trades per day 5.6 Daily Gain/Loss -56.16 Gross PNL ($730) Commission $430 Net PNL ($1160) When i omit my disaster day my statistically are roughly the same however my PNL is positive. My goal is to increase my winning % and aim for a reward to risk ratio of 2:1. The attached files shows a hypothetic situation based on my current trading.