Anybody expecting a breakout or run-up to new highs tomorrow? Set-up looks good tomorrow for a decent gain after the FOMC. This not a prediction.. However, I see the market having a bullish bias Wednesday to at least last Thursday's open. You'd like to see a breakthrough of the 1445 handle but, gains for tomorrow seems like the soup for the day. What do you thing?
JMHO Chop chop chop. If we do breakout again, we will more than likely fail again back into the channel.
Interestingly we are within striking distance of a new high (spoos) and if the fed provides the impetus then the question is will the short covering rally fall back to earth with a thud. Last Thursday's action certainly suggested a few are anxious about their gains....
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/BondMarketUpdate.htm Rates Hang in Tight Range Ahead of Heavy Calendar: The market languished much of the session, looking ahead to all the data & debris, sifting through the day's trash looking for something to gloom on to. The market is pinning its hopes on reports & wondering how the Fed will play its (limited) hand. The slight lean to the upside today was led by the long end, but offered little in the way of ranges so tomorrow may result in an overreaction (or worse, ennui) to everything & anything as far as bonds go because the payrolls remains on the calendar (although, granted, they are some losing luster in their constant state of revision). Either way, the market is likely to move hard tomorrow, because it's all about the Money, Honeyâ¢. The curve stalled into a tight range as well, obviously, with the 2-10-yr yield spread heading out at -8.9. The buck is mostly hanging around the session's mid-range as bigger territory won't be staked out until after the week's event risk is at least partially consumed. The euro is at 1.2961 & the yen at 121.6150. Spot gold is up at 646.40 (+2.70) while crude oil rocketed to 56.90 (+2.89). Tomorrow brings the first read on Q4 GDP, Chicago PMI & construction spending & the Fed's policy statement
"While the market was pricing in the likelihood of a Fed easing in early 2007, there's also an argument that such a rate cut may jeopardize the Fed's credibility and subsequently renew recession worries. Thus, since the Fed needs to talk tough on inflation-fighting, it is Briefing.com's belief that tomorrow's policy statement will connote a continued bias towards tightening and that the market has been getting a little over-anxious about the possibility of the Fed's next move being a rate hike."
Just as a reminder; Remember where you heard it first. Now, let's watch the 1447 handle I am skeptical of a violation here, but let's see.
Couldn't have called it better. That's how you make a call on the market gentleman. It appears the market has decided to pivot under last Thursday's open as expected. And just as I did not like last thrusday's close and low on the bearish end. I do not like today's close on the bullish end. However, light overnight volume can make prints unpredictable and less reliable. Skepticism of violating the 1447 handle was warranted especially considering the job's data on friday. There's no need to continue further if at all, and expose oneself to unnecessary risk by breaking new ground. Besides, it defeats the purpose of the report in the first place. With all the horrendous market calls on this site mine couldn't be any worse. With all this being said, I could see an early new high after the natty gas report tomorrow. It would be a perfect time for it. But again, i'm not predicting ANYTHING!
I'm sorry friend. I didn't see it. It's seems this site is dominate by only a handful of people. I know I'm not the only one who anticipated a possible breakout or run-up to the highs today. But, everybody has their own logic on how to get there. That's why I post; to hopefully read intelligent commentary and evidence to the contrary or in conjunction with my own. Good luck trading tomorrow.