It's not so easy to make a pile of money quickly.If I had $2 million to burn or was part of a group that did.I'd back a man like that (who'd done it before) and like you said,everybody knew the war would end the bear (was designed to)?So those that knew him knew that ideal circumstances had arrived.
Well, he just had a stellar May across all his funds - betwen 6 - 13%, and up on the year in all his funds, I believe. He seems to be substantially negatively correlated with the equity indices and correlated with short sellers. He actually calls one of his funds, "Negative Correlation Fund". Interesting for a strategy that is pitched as systematic global macro.......
based on your comments, it's clear you are misdefining his phrase "greatest run". think what the phrase means in statistical terms. 0 to 150 million plus back to zero, then again to 300 million plus. this is certainly the greatest run in all of speculative history. not to mention the top performance rankings once again after a total blow out. surfer
Personally it is my believe that both Niederhoffers and Nalebs systems are fundamentally flawed. On the one hand it is possible we can go 20 years without having an event that would make Nalebs system payout or can have two serious crashes within a 12 month period that will take Niederhoffer out like it already happened. If you guys want to talk about great, specially you the new guys, study the way Steinhardt made it happen. Stein had amazing returns with consistency over almost 20 yrs straight if I am not mistaken. (read No Bull by Steinhardt) I have not read about PTJ and wondered if anybody can recommend a book on him. Thnx. Cheers !
PTJ is extremely secretive, rarely if ever speaking to the press. there was a documentary about him and his trading style released on video tape in 1988. it was quickly pulled from the market for unknown reasons---only a few copies survived in the hands of collectors of market lore. surfer
I would give neider a break. I think everybody in their life has been humbled once or twice. Whether it's in trading or in real life. How many times have you seen a proud man in his youth, turn to a humble man in older age?
What? What? What??? That doesn't even make sense. Now you're trying to say that Niederhoffer qualifies as the greatest BECAUSE he blew up... and somehow this is better than a guy who went from a few hundred thousand to FIFTEEN BILLION without a single down year. http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/funds/2006-05-26-hedge-funds-usat_x.htm The AVERAGE PAY for a top hedge fund manager these days is $363 Million. Vic's total AUM is less than the AVERAGE TAKE HOME for the real players. Picking up on a bad strategy where you left off--and finding peeps to fund you in the greatest sea-of-liquidity environment of all time--does NOT qualify as great. Nor does the 'top ranking' stuff mean a thing. The best of the best aren't even in the database. Your powers of rationalization are extraordinary. You are going to hurt yourself one day.
Vic is certainly an interesting fellow. His rise and fall and rise have been interesting to follow, especially given his strategy and my interest in discerning its evolution. Given his May numbers, I have to question whether it has evolved all that much. Now, he may get it all back next month as he could have just rolled the whole pile down as Vic has been known to do - but for the time being he had a disastrous May. By my quick math, he lost about a third of his fund and somewhere around 30% for the month although I don't have precise numbers. He was up 30+% prior to May and is now down 6.6% for the year. His June performance will be eagerly anticipated
Hi, Where can I find Niederhoffer's performance record for the past few years ? By reading some of your posts, it seems that Vic has been selling tons of S & P 500 Put options. Thanks.