Listen up dumbo. If you understood anything about markets you'd know that it's not always possible to pinpoint a move, but you can establish that the likelihood of a rally is strong at certain times, and that the probabilities favour the long side. That is what happened this week, hope you were on the short side.
You have absolutely NO way of knowing whether or not the crisis that led to VN's blowing up is a "once in a lifetime" thing. As for drawdowns, I would hang it up if I suffered a 29% one in a month. I would be ashamed and would stop trading until I figured out what was wrong with me. I guess it's me--I hate losing. His protege Monroe Trout had a 10% knockout formula: once you're down that much, close out all positions for the rest of the month. Good idea.
Of course the market was oversold on Monday. It was oversold Friday, and Thursday. etc. But that doesn't mean you make predictions or buy into a sharp decline. You wait until prices tick up, and then you buy aggressively once it appears all is clear.
nastazio151 Registered: Dec 2004 Posts: 12 06-15-06 06:20 PM From VN's site in his very own words... P.S. The Elite Trader site has about 50,000 contributors to it, discussing many threads of interest of the day and fray for traders. I find the discussions very good at generating fruitful questions to ask and answer. There are experts among them on almost any topic, and I find that by the time they work thru a particular thread, they are excellent at separating the wheat from the chaff, and exposing ballyhoo. Many of our own are already on it, and I would recommend the site to all who are interested in questions and answers about trading threads. eek: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ OK Lets separate the wheat from the chaff Vic...lets expose the Ballyhoo on Chit Chat now on ET. Im sitting at my wooden desk in stockings and the music is on in the background okay. Thread was started about you, and RECENT article. We all can go read it so no repeat. But you claim Greatest Run Ever..... Market keeps tanking going on a month or more now. Okay . We see, hear, read your fund LOSES 28% in month of May after a huge runup continuing your 3 year run. 28% in one month? We are bored or interested, so we read a few websites, blogs, etc...of course we go to yours to see what you may share with us about May, S&P FALLING, selling puts, STATS, volatility expansion?....maybe some words of humbleness by Mr. Market. Right?? We are interested because you dont believe in shorting the Equity Market. You say so repeatedly. The shorts worked good too Vic, hardly any retracement to shake us out and cover. We are traders , just follow the trend, pick our spots. No claims to being better than the market or anyone albeit. Vix is rising...doubling now as we near mid June. Hmmm is Vic cutting losses, doubling down? hedging? firing his risk-control man? What? Yes Vic we have an interest in how the Second Chance Fund is doing. We are curious... killing time waiting to cover lower. Yes, We read your latest book. Sunday sleep in , get some sun... get ready for Monday, the markets are moving in June, yes. Lets Prep for the week ahead. A few of us ET lurkers, writers, contributors notice you make one Bold ass prediction that Monday is an UP day with Statistics to prove you are right...okay cool.... you are smarter than me hands down Vic. And? you made a prediction after a possible bottom couple days before? hmmm? Wow the Best hedge fund mgr, greatest ever, opened our eyes. Monday, tues. wed? the market Craps into another selloff , and higher Vix, Vic. Whew! Not wanting to cover too soon on Monday/Tues. lets read a site or two to kill time. We go to yours and what the F??? where is the Monday Bold prediction? oh there it is it changed from monday to"coming soon" to gone now to who the hell knows how many changes/erases. As a bottom is being made Wed. overnight across the world, We come to ET to see if others saw what we saw....was kinda weird Vic. Thank God some others observed this Monday market Call change as well. Fine, but with no explanation? None? Still none? Make something up? like legal counsel made you do it or something. You just change it back to Monday with some preceding words changed ,when on Wed?. Damn, actions speak a helluva lot louder than words, and all those clever market overkill analogies. Many of us actually Hope you changed with your Public Blowup... its a great comeback story... hell, maybe a movie for TV one day who knows. Good story to date... Knowing you are prone to deliver tough shots, lip service, to many people, in this industry fair or unfair..... Vic you open yourself up to scrutiny...Oh Yes.... You manage OPM, in the Unregulated Hedge Fund industry, and you help promote yourself publicly via articles, your website, books, etc. You say you have had Best Run Ever....So? We are left with no explanation, and pissing contests with new registered users/aliases , relentlessly supporting your character , your record, your Bio....on and on.....where RT Chit Chat? Sigh... Me? I want you to admit you were wrong Vic , unlike May, unlike your blowup or any blowups before. Just admit its not right to change a prediction after the fact, and pretend none of us saw it. If I were an investor and hadn't withdrawn my funds after May, I would for sure now , because you cannot admit your call was wrong! or off a bit , or early, Period.... Have you really learned Vic? Or did the low volatility, low draw down stock, S&P rally the last 3 years mask your prior disregard, and weakness of defining, measuring and respecting Risk....? Can Vic himself answer us , and not his Staff and or Aliases? Thanks. This is NOT a personal attack. Yes, Vic is smart, good man, on and on...can VN type an answer on his site at least? Or is this beneath him? Lets Separate wheat from the chaff, as the market finally rallies. Or?....did we expose the Ballyhoo here on ET?
you have no idea what the acceptable margin of error was in the original calculations. not everyone hangs on every tic, RA. sorry, no uri geller here. surfer by the way, you never stated the parameters....
Have you tested that? Let me answer for you, no you haven't. If you were actually to formulate this idea into a testable hypothesis, you would not need to be a giggling cynic. You would be someone who could judge the merit of trading ideas for himself.
actually, rudimentary testing clearly shows that buying after a decline is more profitable strategy than buying after "prices tick up". please see larry connors " how markets really work" for some good, simple , useable tests--if you lack the math skills or desire to do it yourself. surfer