That is exactly the thing. The truly great traders in history have literally amassed a hundred to a thousand times more wealth for themselves and their clients than Niederhoffer ever did, without ever blowing up. And yet, the truly great traders would never be caught dead bragging about themselves in this fashion. Niederhoffer attracts negative attention precisely because he is such a blatant hypocrite. He goes on and on about statistics and then completely abuses them. He repeatedly declares himself humble in one of the most arrogant trading books ever to be written. He trashes others with multi-decade track records of success (trend followers, Buffett etc) even though there is NO ONE with a multi-decade track record of success selling volatility, including him. He telegraphs his eventual demise all throughout the book, bragging about the warnings he has received from Soros and others, bragging about how the Yen almost killed him. Then he actually does get killed, says he is a changed man after his blowup, and demonstrates that he hasn't changed at all. There is something psychologically amiss with Victor Niederhoffer. Based on simple observation of his track record and his statements, it is clear that he is a danger to himself and others in the markets. Anyone who does not see that is either unintentionally or willfully blind. Niederhoffer and his lap dogs bring out ire in other traders because he violates the basic principles of arete. Arete, the greek concept of virtue and personal excellence, is embedded in the spirit of trading. Most (successful) traders would recognize their subconscious embrace of arete, whether or not they'd previously heard the word. Vic's hubris, and his deception, and his plain shitty methods of making money, all spit in the face of arete. I for one do not hate Niederhoffer. I doubt anyone on this thread really does. I would tell him my thoughts face to face if I met him, but more out of a desire to help than hurt. If he were to come clean, do a mea culpa, and show real evidence of change, he would probably be forgiven by most of his detractors here, because forgiveness is a part of arete too. But I doubt he will ever change. Not that he needs to change. He can do and be whatever the hell he wants. I'm just pointing out why he has attracted more attention than your average losing trader. It's because his habits and actions are such a blatant violation of the arete concept, which is close to the heart of many traders. Anyone with an absolute dollar return above $0 probably has a better track record than Niederhoffer. But again, it's not so much about the achievements as it is Vic's violations of arete, and the weak-ass attempts of his defenders to rationalize away his shortcomings. As to your hypothesis, it's pretty weak. Traders are allowed to express opinions and have conversations. Being opinionated is kind of a prerequisite for stepping up to the market in the first place. That's the thing. It's so far from accurate as to be laughable. And those with a true claim to greatness would never brag about it in the fashion Niederhoffer did, even though they have a legitimate right to. That says something important in and of itself.
Let me get this right VN delusionists? Even though Most of us like his book and website, and admire his fortitude to bounce back from BLOWING UP, and other attributes about him ; its okay to make a prediction on his popular website; it was straightforward, and BOLD, Monday an Upday. Then change his prediction 1,2,3? how many times after the FACT on Monday and Tuesday, or Wed. on his website? Just turn our cheek for a guy that has his share of DIGS and critique of many others in the trading world, some deservingly, some not? Should we say AWW shucks it ok? This man and permabull promotes himself in articles and MANAGES a couple Hedge Funds and we should say it fine? pooor Vic he's a great guy? He manages Money and helps others. He's not just some Website huckster selling adspace, he manages OPM. How can Any trader that Has to FACE the truth in every trade ,every trade turn the other cheek. Trading is the ultimate Truth syrum. I ask you NOT supporting trendmo, others, and my point....why does he change his prediction? he doesnt Predict much... is it just after another big 1 1/2 month Drawdown, to prove he is right? Does 100 rights erase this one Wrong? Like selling puts? is it ok if I win 100k in 100 trades and lose 100k in 1 trade, is that okay then? I thought he now has a risk manager to watch him, per recent article. But 28% DD in one month? Whats his salary? I swear I could have held in to 20-25% in May. Why does the Greatest Trader in the World need a Risk manger to watch over his fund/trading? If he is watching over it? not sure. I cant wait for the answers to this from land of Myopia, aka EliteTrader. Stick to the point !!, We know his good points already.
Good traders do not make predictions of what may come, just observations of what is happening. They know that no one knows the future, so why bother with predicting. Just observe what the market is doing, and then hop on the trend. In case the market turns against your position, have a stop in place and then get out. Making predictions is a fool's game. I am no fool. Good luck to all.
Yes, we're all "jealous" of his track record. Lost it all (and more) once, and then dropped almost 30% in May. Ironically, on his website VN reviews a book "How to Become a Con Artist." If it is true that he make a bold prediction, and then had the erroneous forecast removed from the site, then he indeed is a con artist.
Niederhoffer has a doctorate in statistics. Niederhoffer's fund was the top performer in its category for the last 3 years. Niederhoffer was World Squash Champion and US Champion for 10 years. Yes, nice concept this 'arete'. But it should probably be used on those who actually achieve excellence rather than some pompous sounding detracters who make up everything they don't actually know.
Nice post, Archimedes. As a humanities Ph.D. I especially liked the classical references. I have seen Sun Tzu's THE ART OF WAR applied to trading. I would personally recommend Aristotle's works on logic instead. Good luck to all (including VN acolytes).
great... how much you got invested with him? as long as he blows some other guys monies its a fun watch! not disputing that
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from Reckoner: Niederhoffer has a doctorate in statistics. Niederhoffer's fund was the top performer in its category for the last 3 years. Niederhoffer was World Squash Champion and US Champion for 10 years. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Irrelevent post . LTCM proved first point. Your 2nd pt is fine, but he sells puts, and S&P, very little DD in 3 years, as proven by his May Stats and his prior Blowup! Your 3rd point? Who gives a fat rats ass about Squash, other than recreationists? Honest, many people even give a damn or care? Most dont...do a poll.... Why does Vic make a Prediction after a big May DD on his Public site and change the wording when Wrong? He is a Hedge Fund Mgr. WHY?
And having a doctorate means what exactly, a free pass? As does a squash title? There is a difference between 'top performer' in a CTA database and top performer period. A huge difference, as the best of the best don't even report. There is also a huge difference between achieving outsized returns with solid risk control vs achieving outsized returns by aggressively selling premium in a low-volatility market, which is basically the financial version of musical chairs. Again, this only comes up because Niederhoffer has the arrogance to declare himself great when he can't even tie the shoes of the truly great. You're a bit of a crank without much of a leg to stand on. If you don't see the importance of what I'm saying, it may be that the concept of arete is foreign to you. Looking at numbers alone without considering the context of those numbers, or the character, disposition and methods of the trader behind the numbers, is exactly the kind of mistake that a mediocre player would make. Especially when the most important number of all, cumulative return in absolute dollars, is still nil. I certainly suspect the analytical and psychological assessment capabilities of anyone who bangs a drum for Niederhoffer without considering the clear defects in his methods and the blatant character flaws that make him a danger to himself and others. What I'm saying is, your hamfisted defense indicates you probably kind of suck in these critical assessment areas. Hopefully you can improve. But if you take a page from Vic, you won't. You'll just rationalize and bullshit throughout your career and always stay the same.
Actually you don't know who I am, but this doesn't making a whole list of assumptions. Just the same as you are doing with Niederhoffer. And the fact that you have no respect for the achievements of others probably means you don't have any real ones of your own, apart from college that is. So you're just empty rhetoric, probably well educated but with little actual substance.