i noticed that VN website is currently kindda stagnant. Interestingly, has anyone noticed that Taleb's website (his blog) www.fooledbyrandomness.com has been updated quite often recently. Speaking of counting, any negative correlation between the two, anyone?
I don't think you understand what a prediction actually is, which might explain why you got the wrong end of the stick. When the expectancy of something reaches statistical significance it can be regarded as 'predictive', but there are no '100%' sure things with stats, just levels of confidence. There are plenty of good books on stats for beginners, for example Rowntree's 'Statistics without Tears'. As for the change in text, it's only a big deal for people looking for something to attack.
Yup, number two statistics book on VN's recommendation list. You're definitely an insider trying to make up for his master. Well, nothing wrong with that, really.
Some more free education for you, not that you deserve it: The whole problem with 'expectancies' which are not 'predictive' is that you can get the data to admit to zillions of them if you torture it enough. If, on the other hand, you get a statistically significant outcome, then you 'might' have an edge. And now we come to one of the more revealing questions. Did you actually bother to test VN's 'prediction' and the reason he made it? Well I know what your answer is, it's clear from your posts.
As I said before, there was nothing wrong with the 'prediction' itself, but more with the attempt to retract it after the day was over. VN has created for himself a very visible high profile image and he is trying too hard to manipulate it. He is the one who craves for recognised greatness and legacy. So this leaves him exposed to extra scrutinity. Sorry, this is no fan club, but simply practical speculation.
I have tested Vic's assertion with Inventure's Ranger. Let's simply say that nobody would made a decisive bet based upon the output.
I am sure he is! I myself been following his work for few years now. That's exactly why we are having this discussion right now.
I didn't notice much of discussion, just a lot of name calling and nit picking. Seemed to me like pretty shabby treatment of a great trader and benevolent person, which is why I've been wasting my time here.