Breakdown about to occur

So are you saying your a quant?

 

What is unclear about what is happening to the ten-year in this chart? Even a caveman can figure this one out.

 

This runnup in treasury yields is actually contributing to the strength in stocks. Yes, we will reach a point where yields weigh on stocks but we are not there yet.

 

From an allocation point of view? Sell notes to buy stocks? I only ask because you say "contributing"; to me they're correlated but there's no causality.

 

I have no hard evidence but I think there's an unwind going on. Selling out of tsy longs and buying back equity shorts. Just a hunch.

 

The SPX just came out of a triangle going through the bottom. Short term price target of 1523.

 

Triangle is intraday, lower highs all day long. I see 1523 in the short term future.

 

1530 is the new resistance with a target of 1523. Potential pivot points are 1525, 1523, 1520 and 1515. If the price falls below 1515, then big chance it will land right smack at 1440. If price pivots off of the pivot points, then it will make a run for the resistance at 1530 and possibly towards 1550(ultimate resistance).

Need fed rate cut at this point to go through ultimate resistance.

 

no way fed rate cut is happening until AFTER market tanks (ok, so very low probability based on past data).

Why cheerleaders keep clamoring for rate cuts is beyond me. They ignore data pointing to recession when it comes to setting market outlook, then spin it back negative when chanting for cuts.

The way i see it, we enter recession, market promptly tanks, and THEN rate cuts come. We have yet to get to any of those pts yet.

 

The problem is that the indexes are driven mostly by fundamentals and not technicals. Your system will probably fail as a result of this.