Not sure, depends on earnings. 1980 - 1998 were anywhere between 5% and 14% and never ever below 5% and stock markets managed to advance nicely. If we were to goto 6.5%, 7%, 7.5% on the TY with flat earnings then I believe we'd be in big trouble for many years to come.
Then you have greater rates on debt. Notes/Bonds/etc are used to set rates for debt. Therefore debt instruments become costlier to use and liquidity becomes a concern.
Im not sure what your doing, but your definately not a trader and I have to question your ability at investing as well. You dont believe in technical analysis, your plan seems to revolve around "buying the good stocks" and you cant really explain to me as to why your up 40% in a year. You just know that you are because you bought the "good stocks", but you cant even give me a decent explanation as to why the stocks you hold are good. You havent listened to the conference calls, you havent read the earnings reports, you dont understand the charts, you dont understand the fundamentals...your like the woman I met in the bar the other day who had randomly picked a few mutual funds in her 401k, got lucky and now she is up 40%. "Trading" revolves around having a plan. Whether that plan involves a technical map, fundamental analysis or whatever. However, your ideas are more akin to gambling where money is thrown down on a table and then you feel better then us all when the little ball finally lands on black. Your assertion that "TA doesnt work most of the time" is not in fact true. Tell me a time when it hasnt worked on the indexes? Even during the crash in the late 20s or the crash during 1987 or the 2000 tech bubble, it would have served you well. The same ideaology applied each time with price seperating from macro trend lines and forming the bump and run formation with predictable retracements.
China dip couldn't break this market today. I doubt the fed minutes can if they're the usual blabla they seem to copy&paste from their previous minutes.
Ahead of the FOMC minutes and after the realse my call is for a continuation of this mornings bounce. I also think we grind higher into the figs on Friday. Any failure to rally is a warning sign that last week's lows need to be taken out.
Today will be the last day that you can get out safely. The uptrend has been disturbed. Consider yourself lucky and forewarned.