Assuming you're right... Last time the indices really broke, late Feb/early Mar, metals and such went down with them. Essentially, securitization fell apart a bit, and risk premia went up. Will that happen this time?
Volume been crap Friday and today probably because of the holiday period. Chop...chop... Give the market some time here. Bulls see it as consolidation befomre push to new highs.... I recall a few of your other recent posts quite bullish, new economy etc. etc. You are calling for a pretty serious pullback hmm :eek: :eek: .
Gold going to 625 **guaranteed**. If it breaks 625, then it will go to mid-500s. If it bounces from there then it will go to 680. A break above 680 means its heading for mid-800s. If oil breaks down further, then we visit mid-50s soon. If it is able to stage a rally from here then it will make it to mid-70s. The ten year yield is at a questionable point where it could either break down to 4.6 level or go dramatically higher going to above 6 and change.
Don't stop there. Give us your Shanghai and Nikkei predictions. While you're at it will Lindsey Lohan make it out of rehab?
I am very bullish, but something is wrong. Somehow I feel the RUT and the RUI will test 800 soon. The RUA will test 860. I woke up this morning thinking that 4300 on the shanghai is a key level, then what will happen if it doesnt break through that point. The margin debt is troubling me too. There was a 30+% annual change in the debt telling me that the DJIA has a 50-50 chance of rising from here. If it does rise, then we may have only 1-2% for the next 52 weeks. The puts in the marketplace doesnt seem enough to throw a floor underneath the market right now and the amount of short interest hasnt been greater since 1931 on the NYSE. The shorts are usually not wrong. In fact, the DJIA was cut in half between 1931 and 1932. Then I saw Jim Cramer on Mad Money telling us how to ride a wild bull market and that Mastercard would go to 180. Then I knew something is going to crack soon.
Ok. I will. The price action of the Nikkei is right at the apex of a large symetrical triangle. The floor is somewhere around 17500 and the ceiling at 17750. A break in either direction will either set in motion a gigantic breakout to 19500 or to the mid 15000s. The Shanghai has reached a critical point. If it cannot break past 4400, which is a key resistance level, then it will most likely trade down for the rest of the year. However, if it can break 4400 then 6000 is likely.
Hmm, interesting predictions. Either prices are going up or they are going down. Hard to go wrong if you won't pick a direction. Here's my prediction. No change. Volatility is dead. No breakouts. No retracement. All assets will end the year at the same price they are at today. Financial absolute zero. Improbable, I know, but sometimes you gotta swing for the bleachers. Martin
The weekly Dow chart is still very strong and as I take my main trend direction from that I am still bullish though on a daily we look like we maybe counter trending. Cheers