Brazillian Real (BRL)

Discussion in 'Forex' started by m22au, Aug 21, 2018.

  1. m22au


    "Carmen Reinhart Says Brazil May Be Surprise Loser From Turkish Turmoil"

    "Real Rout Returns As Brazil's Leftist Workers' Party Dominates Polls"

    "BofA's "Emerging Market Crisis" Indicator Was Just Triggered"

    USD/BRL climbed above 4.00 in the last 48 hours

    Election scheduled for 7 October and 28 October (2nd round),_2018

    Another thread about Brazil stocks:

    Last edited: Aug 21, 2018
  2. m22au


  3. m22au


  4. Daal


    A lot of the direction of Brazil will depend on the election. I'm quite optimistic about the outcome. I see as quite unlikely for Lula to run for president.

    The Supreme court has ruled (twice) that a criminal defendent cannot be in the presidential succesory line (Speaker of the House, Senate Leader, president of the Supreme Court) because in case of travel/ilness/death, you could have a criminal defendant being the president which they dont believe is consistent with the principles of democracy.
    The result of that rulling made the Speaker of the House lose his post when he became a defendent (he was eventually lost his parlamentary immunity, was found guilty and sent to prison). Later the Senate Leader was removed from the succesory line (even though he kept his position and immunity).

    To think they will accept that someone that wasn't just a defendant but was actually found guilty and then lost his appeals will be allowed to go from prison to being the president of the county I believe its quite a strech. To not say ridiculous, it could happen but the odds are very low. That same supreme court has already ruled against habeas corpus for Lula a few months ago

    The most likely winner in my view is Alckmin, the right-wing candidate that will have almost 50% of the TV time (due wide political support/alliances) and that run in 2006 and managed to take Lula to a second round (not that bad of a result given how popular he was back then)
    m22au likes this.
  5. Everyone is saying the evil left wing looks imminent.
    One question: when is the election ?
    Currencies should rock when the election ends.
  6. m22au


    Election scheduled for 7 October and 28 October (2nd round),_2018 says that USD/BRL was at 4.1030 on Friday evening.

  7. Goldman says USD/BRL to go to 5.
    Guess they are expecting a bad election outcome.
  8. m22au


    USD/BRL at 4.1866 according to Yahoo Finance, very close to the record (BRL) low from a few years ago.

  9. m22au


    On Friday, the BRL soared ....
    "Brazilian Real Soars On Speculation Lula Will Be Barred From Running For President"

    Then the speculation was confirmed to be accurate:
    "Lula Barred From Presidential Election By Brazilian Court"

    But now on Monday, BRL has declined, and is back at 4.145 according to Yahoo Finance.

    I am guessing this means that the underlying economic fundamentals might be more important than the outcome of the upcoming election?

  10. Daal


    The lefist candidate Haddad (Lula's substitute) is growing on the polls. And who knows, he might win. But he recently said that entitlements 'should not be considered taboo'. He doesnt seem all that bad honestly. But its a big unknown what he would do if elected
    #10     Sep 3, 2018
    m22au likes this.