October 8, 2011 SouthAmerica: Enclosed is a link to my latest blog about Brazil and China as follows: Monday, October 3, 2011 Brazil and China http://brazilandchina.blogspot.com/2011/10/brazil-and-china.html .
October 8, 2011 SouthAmerica: When I was reading the âFinancial Timesâ today (October 5, 2011) I came across an article: âCurrencies bill vote drama belies political grind ahead.â There's a major âCurrency Warâ and trade war going on for some time, and things are getting almost completely out of control. Here is a note that I sent yesterday to a cousin of mine who is a very influential politician in Brazil: Caro primo, O Ministro da Financa Guido Mantega esta 100 por cento certo quando ele diz que existe uma âCurrency Warâ que esta destabilizando a economia Brasileira. O Brasil nao pode continuar perdendo manufacturing jobs para a China e outros paises. A moeda Brasileira estava overvalued ja a um bom tempo causando nao so a perda de manufacturing jobs no Brasil, mas tambem afetando negativamente a industria de turismo no Brasil. Presidente Dilma Rousseff, Ministro da Financa Guido Mantega, e o Presidente do Banco Central do Brasil Alexandre Antonio Tombini devem continuar com uma policy de diminuir o juros ai no Brasil. A revista Veja acabou de publicar um artigo sobre o real e o US dollar. O artigo diz que nos ultimos 30 dias (23 Agosto â 23 Setembro 2011) a moeda Brasileira perdeu 15 percento de valor contra o US dollar â a moeda foi de 1.60 a 1.84 reais contra US$ 1.00 O artigo sugeste que isto vai causar uma tempestade para a economia Brasileira. Esta valorizacao do US dollar contra o real e muito boa para o Brasil. Eu venho escrevendo a bastante tempo que o Real tinha que ser desvalorizado contra o US dollar pelo menos uns 35 percento. O valor ideal entre real e US dollar e por volta de: Real 2.00 vs US$ 1.00 Neste nivel a economia Brasileira fica em melhor posicao para competir na economia global e ajuda a area de manufacturing no Brasil e tambem a area de turismo. Espero que o Banco Central do Brasil abaixe o juros ainda mais, e que o real desvalorize contra o US dollar (e automaticamente contra a moeda Chinesa) ao nivel de: Real 2.00 vs US$ 1.00 Isto seria otimo para a economia Brasileira se voce estiver pensando no long-term development of the Brazilian economy. Em Maio 10, 2011 eu escrevi o seguinte na website Elite Trader Economics forum: But regarding the currency manipulation of the United States and China the country that is being screwed in a big way is: Brazil. In the last 2 years the real appreciated 45 percent against the US and Chinese currency - resulting in a loss of 100,000 manufacturing jobs in Brazil in 2009, and another 60,000 manufacturing jobs in 2010. And things are not getting any better for Brazil in 2011. ***** Translation: Dear cousin, Finance minister Guido Mantega is 100 percent right when he says there is a "Currency War," that is destabilizing the Brazilian economy. Brazil can not continue to lose manufacturing jobs to China and other countries. The Brazilian currency has been overvalued for a long time causing not only the loss of manufacturing jobs in Brazil, but also negatively affecting the tourism industry in Brazil. President Rousseff, the Finance Minister Guido Mantega, and the President of the Central Bank of Brazil Alexandre Antonio Tombini should continue with a policy of reducing the interest rates in Brazil. Veja magazine just published an article on the real and the U.S. dollar. The article says that in the last 30 days (August 23 - September 23, 2011) the Brazilian currency lost 15 percent in value against the U.S. dollar - the currency went from 1.60 to 1.84 real to US$ 1.00 The article suggested that this will cause a storm for the Brazilian economy. This appreciation of U.S. dollar against the real it is very good for Brazil. I've been writing for some time that the Real had to be devalued against the U.S. Dollar; at least 35 percent. The ideal value between real and U.S. dollar is around: Real 2:00 vs. US$ 1.00 At this level the Brazilian economy is in a better position to compete in the global economy and helps the manufacturing area in Brazil and also the area of tourism. I hope that the Central Bank of Brazil will lower interest rates further, and that the real devalued against the U.S. dollar (and automatically against the Chinese currency) will reach the level of: Real 2:00 vs. US$ 1.00 This would be great for the Brazilian economy if you are thinking about the long-term development of the Brazilian economy. On May 10, 2011 I wrote the following on the Elite Trader Economics Forum website: But regarding the currency manipulation of the United States and China the country that is being screwed in a big way is: Brazil. In the last 2 years the real appreciated 45 percent against the US and Chinese currency - resulting in a loss of 100,000 manufacturing jobs in Brazil in 2009, and another 60,000 manufacturing jobs in 2010. And things are not getting any better for Brazil in 2011. .