Brain function and trading

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by nitro, Mar 1, 2009.


  1. who are these traders/money managers who posted better returns?? you know VN was ranked #1 worldwide for a number of years...right? please let me know as we invest with managers with edge and would like to learn about these under the radar managers you are privy to----facts are-- There are none or very very few--perhaps one or two that dont engage in esoteric instruments/markets--im talking straight options/equities here and not being on the marketmaker side.

    speculators/traders need risk for outsized returns, thats the bottom line.

    surf
     
    #31     Mar 9, 2009
  2. Brain function is easily measured today.

    A great deal of past research neglected to do this (See Traderzones old standbys).

    As a trader matures he goes from sympathetic to parasympathetic.

    If nitro and thunderdog were traders and trading, what they describe doing as trading is called sympathetic. Most exit/exit edge based trading is sympathetic as it is described in the full range of publications on trading.

    A lot of money is paid to people who "fix" traders and fix corporations financial operations. They are focused on making the downside of sympathetic as small as possible.

    The way Steenbarger put in the fix for Greenspoon describes and well points out the tough situation of the sympathetic model that both of them describe as OODA. OODA is the famous sympathetic oriented feeback system for being a fighter pilot.

    The Bohr Effect describes what OODA's stress orientation does to the supply system of the mind.

    Whether a person is getting wiped out by a black swan or just going along in the inductively oriented period prior to a wipe out, really isn't a comparison of two operating conditions in terms of the failure of the mind to do either "nurture" or "nature".

    Some of the most fun intraday moments regarding "mental downsides" of OODA when the Bohr Effect is peaking is the late afternoon cascading when IB's are closing accounts of people experiencing "blowout".

    An good recent (17FEB09 bar 70 and 71) ATS example is the "anticipation" via leading indicator signals where an MACD Bsub2 is followed by an Asub1 concurrent with an alpha on the ST5 and a beta on the ST14 (this is known as a Z1 override (Hershey Hinge)). The reversal occurs to "catch" each portion of the cascade (long for about 70% of the ATR followed by a short for about 70% of ATR.

    Parasympathetically , one kind of trader (the ATS trader in the example) is feeling very coherent (as in relaxed meditation), while sympathetically, the whole list of traders "blownout" were in a Bohr Effect state where their brains had 50% of the required oxygen to operate.

    For any person to trade with the trading knowledge and knowledge of the sympathetic only as displayed by nitro and thunderdog is a common occurance.

    for Steenbarger to not understand the limitations of the sympathetic mind is inexcusable. For Greenspoon to pay Steenbarger in order to average 10,000 a day annual with unlimited capital is wya out of the box as a survival technique.

    What does it take for anyone to move from a probabilistic inductive modus of using their brains? In the least it would take connecting up to a analyzer of their coherence to determine when they should step back from trading as their brains shut down due to lack of oxygen.

    Fortunately, this becomes an enforced occurance through IB's shutting down accounts as they zero out and this returns a sufficient level of oxygen to that person's brain so he can survive in the world as a non trader for the days ahead.

    For nitro, he turned to employment doing computer software maintenance. There is less stress with programming things since there is no financial consequence of wrong programming.

    Here is a display of a software package that monitors a fourrier series associated with a human continually generated waveform. It is blanked out so anyone can fill it in with the best conditions for trading. They are the opposite of the conditions engendered while trading in a CW modus.

    How to go from sympathetic to parasympathetic is the opportunity facing all traders. It is a must to remedy the Bohr Effect associated with oxygen deprivation caused by any degree of stress.

    [​IMG]
     
    #32     Mar 9, 2009
  3. who is greenspoon?

    surf:confused:
     
    #33     Mar 9, 2009
  4. Here is the go to.

    go to Steenbarger's web site.

    while there go to John Boyd

    In that discussion series focus on OODA, invented by John Boyd.

    also find a description of Greenspoon's trading activities, i. e., his 400 lot level (ES) that he does 60 turns a day and that he averages less that a tick per contract per turn of the 24,000 turns.

    find also that Greenspoon allows a TV monitor as he trades for Steenbarger's analysis. from this analysis Steenbarger gives Greenspoon direction of the four parts of OODA and, specifically on the A which is an inductively based hypothesis whose results are found in the first O of OODA.

    For Greenspoon the pulse is very high and coherence is nill. See Lo of MIT et al for detailed ohter sympathetic symptoms measured under contract with IB traders where IB's were in their former corporate form.

    A parasympathetic trader is the opposite: pulse of 55 is a reading as is an 80% in the right coherence column.

    The lower left chart can have as many as 40 plus steps where a step from lower left to upper right represents a discernable waveform improvement in the real time fourier waveform analysis.
     
    #34     Mar 9, 2009
  5. http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=19433&t=01007210973180217446:

    Calculating Victor Niederhoffer's Matador fund returns

    According to the New Yorker article: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/10/15/071015fa_fact_cassidy?printable=true

    "In 2003 and 2004, the funds increased in value by more than forty per cent each year, and in 2005 the value of the largest fund, Matador, rose fifty-six per cent—a performance that earned Niederhoffer an industry award. Last year, his funds were flat. But in the first six months of 2007 they were up again, by between thirty and forty per cent."


    a little later in the article,

    " In September, he was forced to close two of his funds, including his flagship, Matador, which had declined in value by more than seventy-five per cent."

    2003 40%

    2004 40%

    2005 56%

    2006 0% (Flat)

    2007 -75%

    I tried to locate more accurate numbers to no avail, if you have the numbers since the fund's inception in 2001, please drop me an email.

    To calculate the average annual returns from the years 2003 to 2007, we use the geometric mean calculation:

    = (1.40 x 1.40 x 1.56 x 1 x (0.25) ) ^ 1/5

    = (0.764) ^ 1/5

    = 0.947% a year


    _________________________________________

    Geometric means aside, if I had invested $100 at the beginning of 2003, I would only walk away with $76.44 in 2007. That's really all I need to know.
     
    #35     Mar 10, 2009
  6. P.S. The poster in the Motley Fool site actually got it wrong when he calculated that Matador's geometric mean return was .947%. He forgot to subtract 1 from the calculation. In fact, Matador's geometric mean return, which accounts for compounding for the period under review, was approximately -0.053, which is (5.3%).
     
    #36     Mar 10, 2009
  7. Nitro? Surf? Still there?
     
    #37     Mar 11, 2009
  8. T2GR8T

    T2GR8T

    Nice to see steve46 back after blowing out his account using Hershey's SCT

    Now lets not have any tall stories like the last one where your non existent sister died in 911 Steve

    Then you wont have to slink off the site with your tail between your legs
     
    #38     May 4, 2009
  9. #39     May 4, 2009
  10. <table border=1><tr><td>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td colspan=2 align=center><b>Right Brain/ Left Brain Quiz</b></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td colspan=2 align=left>The higher of these two numbers below indicates which side of your brain has dominance in your life. Realising your right brain/left brain tendancy will help you interact with and to understand others.</td>
    </tr>
    <tr nowrap><td valign=top align=right>Left Brain Dominance: </td><td align=left><img src="http://www.intelliscript.net/test_area/questionnaire/bar_graph.gif" width=60 height=12 alt="10">(10)</td></tr><tr nowrap><td valign=top align=right>Right Brain Dominance: </td><td align=left><img src="http://www.intelliscript.net/test_area/questionnaire/bar_graph.gif" width=66 height=12 alt="11">(11)</td></tr>
    <tr>
    <td colspan=2 align=center><font size=1><a href="http://www.intelliscript.net/test_area/questionnaire/questionnaire.cgi?q=right_brain_left_brain_2">Right Brain/ Left Brain Quiz</a></font></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    </td></tr></table>
     
    #40     May 4, 2009