Brackets just before news announcements.

Discussion in 'Forex' started by trading_time, Aug 17, 2006.

  1. Good advice but, If this is a hypothetical scenario you mention, I think it is very hypothetical because 50+ pips can happen over night during the 12 hour period, meaning getting filed before the news, in witch case you could be on the wrong side. So the alternative to this strategy would be putting your order far off markets actual price. This could cause you to get filled on the top half of the move, or even the top with slippage. This would increase risk because half the time they whip right back the other way just as fast

    For now I will concentrate on what I already do best, maybe another opportunity of this method will pop up. I do agree on being prepared, watching the market action, knowing when the reports come out weeks ahead of time.
    #11     Aug 20, 2006
  2. offshore


    Trading time your right. You might get hit with that hypothetical 50 pt move in the 12 hours before the report but you are prepared :) You already set your entry points so you accordingly already set your stop loss points. Worse case, you get filled early and stopped out and you sit out the report. It's been my experience though that the 12 hours before the major US reports, price tends to vector into very narrow ranges until release most of the time. You might get some push one way or the other but it doesn't seem to amount to much and is very short lived. This is just my experience of the last two years and I am sure others may have seen all sorts of variations. The few times I have tried to play the reports like this, I have come out ok (either with a pre-determinded loss or some profit). This is not to say it works all the time or will ever work again, but at least if you have your trade worked out early, and have thought out the possible scenarios, you can react accordingly with a minimum of emotion.
    #12     Aug 20, 2006

  3. Here is a better idea: go to Vegas, and put it all on "Red".

    Compared to what you are talking about doing, this is sheer genius.

    #13     Aug 24, 2006
  4. Recent UK Retail Sales and now GER Ifo:

    Who are the market quants that gun for the stops by pushing the market right into the absolute second the data is released only for the market to run hard the direct opposite direction once the data is released? This Ifo was really more pronounced in terms of pre-data's movement significance and post-data movement. It looks like a 1.2750 barrier option may have been the target...

    Either they get absolutely run over or else they are wickedly bold and close or SAR at the last possible second.

    Comments appreciated, thx.
    #14     Aug 24, 2006
  5. Its pretty standard stuff ... you push enough sellers onto your buy orders and then, even if you get hit for a few it really doesn't matter. But pulling most of the orders as the announcement takes place isn't that diabolically difficult.

    Putting it kindly, this bracket either side for news strategy is one of those "it looks so easy" situations where the real world proves that it isn't. Pure newbie bait.

    If the newbie gets it and takes responsibility then he gets clouted a couple of times and realises its not the holy grail. If the newbie is a real loser he keeps coming back to complain that the slippage is unfair ---- a good example of the effect of (reasonable) slippage is

    If it looks really easy in trading ... then its probably a sucker bet :)
    #15     Aug 24, 2006