Dear Shortie 1- Do you really listen to Cramer ? ... 2- Even if the health care bill gets a very bad interpretation by market, it really does not mean that the correction happens here. To me the only thing that matters now is just which one the technical analysis will win, The breakout above the previous high which was 1150, OR , the overbought situation we currently seeing in many indicators. I bet you there are many suckers who are willing to buy this little drop also. You and I and probably many others are already in the position and just should be worried about our stop loss orders now. are you going to re-enter if your stop is hit or you stay in the sideline.. ??
shortie, you are so wishy washy it makes me puke. You come out strong with a premise to start this thread: Then try to back up your assertion by using a weekly chart with a bollinger and try to draw comparison between 2003 and 2010. Finally, you come up with a summary that is totally wishy washy and weak. Face it. You just want attention. With 2222 posts, its clear to me you should focus more on whats happening in front of you, rather than entertaining the peanut gallery here on EliteTrader. And you know whats so sad shortie? Even if you got it right, nobody could give a shit. Why not own up to just trading well. The more you post your bearish stance, the more the market will want to run over you.
1. the sentiment is not inconsistent with the top. one could always wish for more extreme bullishness but what we have now is clearly good enough. 2. the market is so crazily overbought that it should go down any day now. i think the shorts who got in too early have been fueling the rally. they will also be buying pullbacks to get out with less pain. so the market should NOT go down fast. 3. right now i am trying to understand the importance of the healthcare bill for the market. i get a feeling that it could be a market moving event, but which way i am not very sure. there could be a knee-jerk reaction and a major dump on Mon (even though i said in 2. that the market should not go down fast from here, healthcare bill reaction could change everything) p.s. we had several days over the last 6 days when the stops of the shorts were run. so, it is possible that the shorts are exhausted by now and can't fuel the suicide rally , but there is not guarantee as we all know.
yes, i started the thread out strongly bearish because that was MY sentiment on Fri. then i started looking at the market sentiment info i could find and i noticed that there are more bears that i had anticipated. so, i posted some of my doubts. in the end i managed to reconcile the sentiment contradictions in my head and I am back to thinking that the sentiment is consistent with the market top. p.s. actually, my original plan in this thread was to address the sentiment first and later talk about the extremes of this up move to see if there are some hints that we are topping. maybe somebody could add their observation/speculations about the price. but right now i am trying to catch up reading on the healthcare bill because over the weekend i realized that this is likely THE NEWS that will move the market short term.
p.s. what is your definition of "gaps" here? for example on feb-16 ES traded from 1080 to 1091, there is no gap in the conventional sense here. do you call it a gap because this level has not been reached the second time some time in the future? on spy feb-16 is shown as a gap up that was filled during the day.
shortie, i dont know if u use market profile or not,but on a crude hand chart using feb 5 as the start ,we have rallied over 100 es points,i drew a crude hand chart using another mp chart as a template, its sort of etch a sketch,but the market profile leaves gaps and goes back to fill them,roughly 1137-1110,with o6 area as support,and another at 1080-1090 the widest points are the nips and the narrowest the cleavage,these areas serve as targets or magnets,like supp and resistance on a bar graph,the crude chart on the left is mock up from feb 05 ,the nice chart on the right is a year to date from early march