Boys Become Girls Due To Weedkiller, But What Will Castrate This Bull?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Mar 19, 2010.

SPY Next Week

  1. Bullish

    3 vote(s)
  2. Flat

    1 vote(s)
  3. Bearish

    8 vote(s)
  4. No Matter What Happens, This Market Is Rigged

    5 vote(s)
  1. The educational article relevant to the first part of the title:

    While you are reading it I will be working on my charts that will hopefully prove beyond reasonable doubt that the bull leg is over.

    About male to female conversion (yes, it is only about frogs for now. but watch what you eat just in case...):

    "(Reuters) - Atrazine, one of the most commonly used and controversial weedkillers, can turn male frogs into females, researchers reported on Monday.

    The experiment is the first to show such complete effects of atrazine, which had been known to disrupt hormones and which is one of the chief suspects in the decline of amphibians such as frogs around the world.

    "Atrazine-exposed males were both demasculinized (chemically castrated) and completely feminized as adults," Tyrone Hayes of the University of California Berkeley and colleagues wrote in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

  2. So we are in a crazy rally. Let's compare it to 2003 rally. Both are pretty crazy with upper bollinger band being crossed several times on the weekly chart.

    One thing I notice that both rallies started in March. 2003 ended in March 2004, could 2009 rally end right here as well? It seems naive to draw a conclusion that totally different rallies should last for exactly the same length. Let's just say that the history shows that 1 year is plenty of time to put breaks on a quite crazy rally.

  3. I agree. The market has been ignoring everything to rally. Timing is good for a pullback at least to the 200d ma I would think.

    When I look at price graphs most major inflection points seem to correspond to events. Often times FED actions.

    India's central bank unexpectedly hikes key interest rates a quarter point on inflation fears :eek:

    3/31/2010: MBS gravy train over.

    "There are concerns over the lack of concrete EU support and because Greece seems to be dragged towards the last resort, which is the International Monetary Fund," Cyclos Securities analyst Constantinos Vergos said.

    Sell in May and go away will probably come early this year just as the March rally jump started in February.

  4. VIX hitting new multi-year low has been a reliable predictor of a coming sell-off in recent months (see the chart for the last several months). VIX hit new low 3 times in the last 3 days! That's quite bearish. Consider that the sell-offs were typically major (with the exception of the Dec one that was puny).

  5. one thing that worries me (from a bear's point of view) is that call/put ratio has not reached an extreme coincidental with VIX hitting new low. as you can see $CPC hit ~0.6-0.7 level around the previous tops, but not this time. on march 09 it did make such a low but the market proceeded higher. Basically, this maybe a hint that the complacency still has some room to grow.

  6. To summarize my take on the market sentiment:
    1. VIX demonstrates extreme complacency
    2. $CPC does not demonstrate extreme complacency
    3. Possibly there are too many bears (including myself) to indicate extreme complacency.
  7. no, history does not repeat itself like that. this won't we a w-bottom, but a v-bottom or at most a w second dip much higher, before we hit 1600
  8. Some interesting numbers from the shortest-term stock market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest:

    Jan-06 2010: 65.2% bullish
    Jan-15 2010: 48%
    Jan 21-22 Market Starts Dropping for real

    Mar-05 2010: 62.8%
    Mar-18 2010: 56.2%
    Mar 22-26 Market Starts Dropping for real?????

    It would be an interesting pattern if we see similar scenario: extreme bullishness before the final run-up, followed by increasingly bearish sentiment (BEFORE the decent starts), followed by the correction and the panic.

    As a point of reference, 63% and 65% reading are the highest since early 2007. So, in the last 3 months we have touched some extreme bullishness, but the extreme bullishness per se can't pinpoint the exact day of the market top.
  9. The Fact is : YES there will be for sure a correction,
    Question is : Correction from where to where ???????????/

    So if you are short now (like me ) where is you stop loss ?

    I sure hope we get a continuation next week, But who knows the correction could be for example from 1200 to 1150...

    By then, many stops will be hit ( including mine ) and probably yours....

    1150 on ES is a big support now because we broke through it last week. best scenario is if Sunday night it chacks friday low and stays there till Monday morning, otherwise buy orders will find their way again ... that health care bill thingy may also effect on it too ...
  10. will healthcare bill be the driver for the coming week market action?
    As CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer predicted – if it passes, get ready to see a sell-off on Wall Street. Cramer appeared on CNBC’s March 18 “The Kudlow Report,” with his former broadcast partner Larry Kudlow. Kudlow asked Cramer to elaborate on his theory ObamaCare could send the financial markets reeling or “topple the stock market,” as Kudlow described it.

    “First, it is the single biggest impediment to the stock market going higher,” Cramer said. “And a lot of this has to do with what's not being talked about enough with how it's going to be paid and also about what it will do to small business formation. This bill is a disaster for both.”

    Cramer said the uncertainty this health care bill present to entrepreneurs is an obstacle, but he also explained the anticipated higher taxes that will finance this legislation are going to be another barrier for higher stock prices.

    “You're either going to have health care premiums go up dramatically, which is just terrible, particularly if you and I wanted to start a business,” Cramer said. “We would have no idea how much it would cost. But the last thing we want to do is start it. Probably stay at our old job. Yet you and I know that small businesses are the secret. That's how we get employment in this country. Or we have dramatically higher taxes. And it looks like -- people won't even realize it when it hits them – but you and I fought very hard for a very long time to reduce taxes and I think we played a role. Reduce taxes on capital gains, reduce taxes on dividends.”

    And with higher taxes, Cramer explained the appetite for risk won’t be there for investment in the economy.

    “At a time when the investor is just completely flummoxed, doesn't know what to do – I think it’s going to lead to big selling in the second half of the year, when people say, ‘Jeez, all the reasons, the favorable tax treatment that made us risk owning stocks – going away.’ Very bad for the stock market.”
    #10     Mar 20, 2010