Boy Who Cried Bear Says We Are Going Down

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Mar 12, 2010.

SPY Next Week

  1. Bullish

    28 vote(s)
    18.3%
  2. Flat

    15 vote(s)
    9.8%
  3. Bearish

    46 vote(s)
    30.1%
  4. I am sick and tired of you kids playing the prediction game

    64 vote(s)
    41.8%
  1. trading only on the short side today also :cool:
     
    #251     Mar 26, 2010
  2. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    downward spiral for many years to come - now more than ever i think many people have started looking for other countries to live. i know everyone i know who has some wealth is talking about it like crazy.
     
    #252     Mar 26, 2010
  3. What countries do you have in mind? I'm interested.
     
    #253     Mar 26, 2010
  4. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    dr

    http://dr1.com/
     
    #254     Mar 26, 2010
  5. i am sick and tired of all these -0.15% drops. we should get at least one -2% or -3% drop for a change just to be a bit more fair to the shorts.
     
    #255     Mar 26, 2010
  6. GTS

    GTS

    Hear hear!
     
    #256     Mar 26, 2010
  7. That'll probably blow out every algo out there right now haha. Can't wait till it does. This low volatility isn't going to last forever.

    Still need to crack some TLs before this is "safe" :)
     
    #257     Mar 26, 2010
  8. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Go on vacation! Market will be flat for the next few months. Look at the polls. No one believes it will be flat and there are too many bulls and bears who already place their bets. No one will be trading.
     
    #258     Mar 26, 2010
  9. just kiddin' here's some more reasoning.

    EOQ soon. If large market participants were gonna sell they'd have done so either Thurs or today. Now we 're in the home stretch for eom and eoq so I am not looking for much volatility next week.

    I would reason that the next two weeks are important to watch the behavior at around the top. Are prices rejected? What's the volume like at those prices? What happens when the new quarter starts? What about mid-April? Put the pieces together to solve the puzzle. Unless we repeat 2003 through 2007 timewise we are 60% through the bull cycle. Pricewise is to be determined. In a year or so the bull leg will have stalled although a lot of money is floating around looking for return. At present there is less room for FED "jobless recovery" compared with either 01-04 or 08 to 10. A new tax structure is coming round as well as a lack of consumer debt demand due to unemployment. Having said all that we corrected significantly (overcorrected) and so we are working through that as well which means we may just flatten out hence my call for a trading range.

    We are at a variable timeframe convergance as well with expected reshuffling between short and long timeframe holders.

    My expectation is for a trading range between 1180 and 1150 from now until mid-April and then 1180ish to 1050ish between now and the end of the 2nd quarter in the SPX.

    Of course this is just a hypothesis let the market tell you how to trade it but you can watch price and then lower your risk by setting up good trade entries.

    Trading ranges can be very profitable too.
     
    #259     Mar 26, 2010
  10. 666 in the SPX was very low. 850 was probable fair value which means we really only rallied 33% thus far.

    Trading ranges can be very profitable too. [/QUOTE]

    Just look at the last 10 years---March 25th, 2000 to March 25th, 2010 there's a trading range for you!!!

    I think we're in for continued strength until 2011 then go short March 2011 then long March 2013 for a good bull run in stocks.
     
    #260     Mar 26, 2010