for the record, this is the 3rd week in a row that i got it all wrong. the good news is that i started to get it less wrong in the last two weeks (smaller weekly advance)
The primes and FED flashed gang signs and my limited understanding of the communication was all clear til 4/19 That's my gestalt as an outsider playing a rigged game. Up/down next week then up into Mid-April. Then watchout although I still think the sell-off will be contained into July. Nice thread BTW
Maybe I placed too much confidence in traders' innate stupidity to be short in a wildly up market. Now that we are through expiration we will perhaps be given indication that the market is going down, but as of this moment we don't have it. Certainly from a technical standpoint Fridays sell off on, as it were, expiration Friday is no indication of anything in particular except perhaps that those getting flat were selling futures to liquidate hedged positions and move into cash for the moment. Next week may tell us something of more interest.
Careful with EWZ. It drops like a rock. It leads the markets going down or up. Friday, EWZ wanted to rise while the SPY wanted to go sideways. After 1 hour, EWZ decided to drop with the SPY, except of course, it drops steeper. I've been with EWZ for years. It is my primary ETF. It's movement is better at forecasting market direction than VIX or anything, intraday, or daily. Friday, I sold, then repurchased EWZ. I got three free shares with the proceeds.
maybe you are right. i assumed that those voting in 4 don't want to cast the market prediction vote, but maybe some of them would have chosen 1-3 and it is not random what #4 voter would chose. i will be running 1-3 choices only from the next week (this week poll has 4 already ) http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=194236
just some unfinished biz, since feb 5,we left a gap at 1080-91,1112-15,and 1120-30,1158-50,since the beginning of this rally, they have come back and filled these gaps , taken there profits and rebought to push it higher,until we have deflated the dollar enough to reduce our debt,i doubt the plan will change,even though the charts are now going sideways,they are not going down as of yet,we did fill down to 50 , next fill 1120 -30
Why don't you create a separate thread that compiles each weeks prediction result with a chart of the SP500 showing end of week trend. If the moderators clean up the thread and only allow you to update that one thread hopefully we'll have none of the resident losers like stock777 and traderzones polluting the thread with their useless prognostications. That thread alone would make it more worthwhile for real traders to visit this flea infested site more often.
Interesting result from your poll: 55% of ETers are people older than 55! Proof: they answered " I am sick and tired of you kids playing the prediction game" Notice KIDS in there. Time to go to my journal http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=194368
So this was the reason why stock futures were lower this morning: 1. Greece's ability to repay debt...... hmmm, Greece has become a non event, this news if it were an event would have taken the markets down an easy 10%+ where they would have stayed. 2. Health care bill, another non event for the market, it was known for weeks and weeks that this was going to pass, this is again a non-event. These lame excuses these reporters come up with time and time again on why futures are down or up are just hilarious and worthless all at the same time. Stock futures sharply lower ahead of opening US stock futures falling sharply ahead of opening as Greece debt problems remain a concern ap Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer, On Monday March 22, 2010, 9:01 am EDT NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stock futures are falling sharply Monday as investors continue to worry about Greece's ability to repay debt. Reaction to the U.S. government's passage of sweeping health care reform over the weekend will also be closely watched throughout the day. The reform could have a far-reaching impact ranging from health insurers and drug makers to companies that provide employees with health benefits. Overseas markets are falling because of concerns that Greece might not get the outside financial support it needs to help control its debt problems. India's surprising decision to raise a key interest rate to fight inflation is also dragging down global markets. The dollar strengthened against the euro and other currencies. The decline in U.S. stock futures Monday follows a drop Friday after the Greek debt worries returned to the forefront. Greece's debt problems have dragged down the market off and on for nearly two months as the country tries to cut its budget and is looking for outside support. Germany's chancellor on Sunday said a bailout for Greece won't be discussed at a European summit this week. Greece has said in recent days if other European countries do not provide support, it might turn to the International Monetary Fund for help. Investors are worried that Greece and other European nations that use the euro, like Spain and Portugal, could struggle to recover as they try to pay down steep debt. That could upend a global economic recovery. Ahead of the opening bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 43, or 0.4 percent, to 10,644. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures dropped 6.60, or 0.6 percent, to 1,149.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 7.00, or 0.4 percent, to 1,925.25. There is also uncertainty surrounding the health care sector after the House of Representatives passed a contentious bill reforming the industry. The bill will now be sent to President Barack Obama to be approved in the coming days. The sweeping reform will create near-universal medical coverage, extending benefits to 32 million uninsured Americans. However, many of the key points of the bill will not go into effect for several years. Major stock indexes dropped Friday because of renewed concerns about Greece. The Dow fell 0.3 percent, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.5 percent. Stocks had been rising steadily in recent weeks as investors grew more confident in an economic rebound following a string of economic reports that showed mild improvement. There are no economic reports due out Monday that could provide a lift to the market. Reports on home sales, durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims are due out later in the week. The government will also provide its final reading on the nation's gross domestic product from the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, bond prices were little changed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, was unchanged at 3.70 percent compared with late Friday. Gold and oil prices fell.