Boy Who Cried Bear Says We Are Going Down

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Mar 12, 2010.

SPY Next Week

  1. Bullish

    28 vote(s)
    18.3%
  2. Flat

    15 vote(s)
    9.8%
  3. Bearish

    46 vote(s)
    30.1%
  4. I am sick and tired of you kids playing the prediction game

    64 vote(s)
    41.8%
  1. Which is essentially what I alluded to in the beginning of this thread. At the end of QE (that's when this all began, if you recollect).
     
    #101     Mar 16, 2010
  2. Well, we broke 1150 and there weren't any banana peels! Though up we go!
     
    #102     Mar 16, 2010
  3. today's poll:

    will SPY close +0.01%, +0.02% or +0.03%?
     
    #103     Mar 16, 2010
  4. I think we're likely to see a great deal more action post Banana Ben release.
     
    #104     Mar 16, 2010
  5. S2007S

    S2007S

    SPY going for 13 straight days in a row as the market just continues to look extremely overbought, I am sure it heads higher though after the 2:15 pm announcement today.
     
    #105     Mar 16, 2010
  6. Well, S+P just confirmed Greece's BBB+, so all is right in the world again. Up we go, no stopping. Hop on board for the profit express!

    I find it ironic that the rating agencies will (again) be the cause of misplaced optimism.
     
    #106     Mar 16, 2010
  7. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    I am sure it will go down eventually...hang in there.
     
    #107     Mar 16, 2010

  8. Why would I be angry? You saying that....makes me angry :).

    I get it now haha. I apologize. But you need to understand why I got angry.

    I covered 1/2 @ b/e yesterday. That would be an indication that I thought I was wrong. Riding the rest waiting to get a confirmation that I was. The loss is currently .2% of my portfolio (It's like getting punched by Barney). I was looking for a return of 2+%.

    I made assumptions after your second post.

    This was your 2nd post to this thread.

    Luck actually has nothing to do what what we're doing. It was quantified based on a historical pattern. The trade was taken with minimal risk.

    When I see that statement I automatically assume that you assume we have no clue what we're doing and trading based on an agenda of "it's gone up too much".

    That's not the case at all.....it's a trade plain and simple.
     
    #108     Mar 16, 2010
  9. shortie,

    like I've said on another thread:

    1. only firms like Goldman get to short at the top, all others get squeezed trying to pick the top

    2. the SPX has now breached the 1,150 mark. if it closes above and holds, then most likely we're going to rally up to the 200 weekly moving average, around 1,240-1,250.

    3. the hedge funds/quant funds who are long are playing a game called "Drink, Puke and Cover." In this game, the goal is to make as many short sellers drink lots of Pepto Bismol, puke, and push the buy button to cover their short positions

    4. there are unfilled gaps on the SPX index below (look on the daily chart). these gaps have a tendency to fill on the indicies with a high degree of probability, hence the market will eventually fail and drop to fill these gaps

    5. the RSI is in the mid to upper 60's on the weekly SPX chart, a level not seen since the summer of 07. also, there is a 40% or so short interest on the Spiders (SPY), which is huge as a percentage of the float.

    Until then, enjoy the ride up, sell covered calls to hedge your longs, and don't be the "sucker at the top" when we crash!
     
    #109     Mar 16, 2010
  10. Why did I lash out at flyfisher? I hate his guts. Literally hate that guy. Has nothing to do with this trade :)
     
    #110     Mar 16, 2010