Boy Who Cried Bear Says We Are Going Down

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Mar 12, 2010.

SPY Next Week

  1. Bullish

    28 vote(s)
    18.3%
  2. Flat

    15 vote(s)
    9.8%
  3. Bearish

    46 vote(s)
    30.1%
  4. I am sick and tired of you kids playing the prediction game

    64 vote(s)
    41.8%
  1. I apologize in advance for posting my repetitive bearish predictions. I remind myself of the boy who cried bear until people stopped paying attention. Is anybody still listening? :D

    The charts and my anal-ysis are coming up. For now I just say that I remain a stubborn bear and that we should go down for real this coming week.

    Agree? Disagree? Post your charts, opinions, jokes, etc if they somewhat relate to the next week action (and even if the don't, it's ET after all! :))

    Peace!
     
  2. as a start, let me try to scare the bulls away by pointing the ominous filled black candles that were formed today (QQQQ, SPY, XLE) just as examples. Notice how these type of candles are frequent at ~exact market tops several months ago. the fact that various indexes show the same formation may give the candle extra weight.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Well, I'm bearish too, but the market is going up.


    Now, hear me out. It's not all that complicated, although it can lose you a lot of money.


    The market wants to make new highs, and it will. The only reason there is hesitation is because the market is extremely overbought.

    But, rather than selling off with profit taking, the market is working off these overbought conditions by bouncing around overhead resistance.


    Soon, and by soon i mean next week, the market will bust through resistance and set new highs around 1165-1170.

    The market is going higher for two basic reasons -- interest rates are low and earnings are going in the right direction.


    While its true there are some macro economic headwinds, they will only derail the market if there are "singularities" -- and by that i mean singularly important events that could topple the entire house of cars (think sovereign default).


    Don't expect that one or two bad macroeconomic reports are going to send the market down significantly. If we did start to enter a double dip recession, it would take seeing a negative TREND amongst reports before the market would actually react in a meaningful way.



    ANYWAY, the thing to do here is find an opportune time to get long. Once long, keep alert, and bail out if a substantive or meaningfully negative event occurs. Until then, profit with the bulls.


    HB 3000
     
  4. I am not a shrink but I do have a basic understanding of human psychology and in my professional analysis it appears to me that people that constantly try and convince others to accept their beliefs do this because they have no confidence in their own conclusions and require the support of others.
     
  5. give it up man.
    The media has decided we are in recovery and the market is headed higher, and so we will.

    No, the reality on the ground does NOT support that, but the government and media are focused on pushing the recovery illusion and whistling in the graveyard.

    So the market is headed higher. Buy the dips.
    Odysseus
     
  6. Shorty, we all love your charts and analysis....TO POOP ON!!!!


    [​IMG]
     
  7. i am just stating my case. the more disagree, the better for the discussion.
     
  8. still plenty of upside left..
     
  9. This rally has been going on with exceptionally low volume. Not saying it will reverse, but the support areas will be very weak when sellers "eventually" come into this market.

    There's some important economic data next week so it will be interesting.

    It would be dumb to short here and I expect consolidation. I would feel comfortable shorting only after a failed breakout. Let's see if the leaders (Nasdaq/Russells) continue upwards first, or the laggards (Dow/S&Ps) start breaking the trendline and potentially start drifting to the downside.

    Trading has gotten a lot tougher ever since the Euro and US Dollar relationship to stocks has gotten all f-ed up.
     
  10. March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Equity mutual funds are burning through cash at the fastest rate in 18 years, leaving them with the smallest reserves since 2007 in a sign that gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may slow.

    Cash dropped to 3.6 percent of assets from 5.7 percent in January 2009, leaving managers with $172 billion in the quickest decrease since 1991, Investment Company Institute data show. The last time stock managers held such a small proportion was September 2007, a month before the S&P 500 began a 57 percent drop, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUzn_mzqGl.8&pos=4

    coincidence?

    [​IMG]
     
    #10     Mar 12, 2010