This is what will happen. Cameron is expected to direct a new movie so everyone buys those futures. Cameron and his posse start selling futures and then Cameron quits pre-production. The movie futures drop like a rock, Cameron covers and goes long and tells everyone he had a change of heart and will direct the movie after all. The price skyrockets again.
Since when 'gambling' has been a 'novel' idea? A novel idea: Central park on board the Oasis of the Seas! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yTmMJfjxBI&feature=related
Its actually a genius idea, seriously. Now I'm sure there will be some regulation as to who can play these markets so there will be minimum manipulation.
I think it's a fantastic idea. Would have loved to have been able to Short Couples Retreat. I would have made a fortune. Now if there is a way to read the script before making the trade, that would be even better.
Yeah, the guy with the 2 biggest box office hits under his belt is going to manipulate the futures. On the other hand, filmproducers could hedge their big production costs by buying puts on the movie, also known as insurance, because that's what options were originally invented for...